Libmonster ID: SE-320
Author(s) of the publication: Yu. V. CHUDODEEV

Yu. V. CHUDODEEV

Candidate of Historical Sciences

Keywords: Russia, China, partnership, foreign trade turnover, globalization

By the end of the 20th century, globalization, along with the information technology revolution, had become a major factor in global development. Today, the processes of globalization are characterized by high rates of knowledge accumulation, i.e., the development of science, technology, industrial and managerial technologies, new mechanisms for generating profit through the use of knowledge ownership, and finally, the strengthening of transnational organizations (TNCs) participating in global competition.

Russia and China entered the era of globalization, being in different political and economic situations and facing different problems. At the same time, it was and remains common: the mutual desire of both countries to modernize (albeit from different economic levels) and dynamism of development by forcing their own breakthroughs in scientific and technological progress and borrowing the achievements of economically developed countries that have gone ahead.

Thus, we are talking about preserving the national identity, the independence of the state and society from external pressure, and the identity of civilizational and cultural principles in the period of globalization.

DIFFERENT FATES

For Russia, this period was marked, as is well known, by a difficult and painful transition to the market, capitalist management, associated with the collapse of the USSR, a serious weakening of the state and the vertical of power. The country continues a complex process of reforms both in politics and in the economy.

Russia maintains a leading position in the world in the extraction of hydrocarbons and some other types of minerals. It retains the status of an emerging fast-growing State with a fairly high human development index, a high level of energy consumption, and a relatively high level of income per capita. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in 2010 the Russian Federation ranked 56th in the world in terms of nominal per capita income ($10,437), while the PRC ranked 94th ($4,382), and 52nd ($15,838. 7) in terms of purchasing power parity, respectively. 94th ($7519) 2.

So far, Russia retains a certain advantage in the development of nuclear energy, the production of missile technology and weapons, and some other areas. But at the same time, the country still has an unfavorable investment climate and legal conditions for business development, as well as great difficulties in achieving serious innovative breakthroughs (due to the lack of skills in commercializing scientific discoveries, as well as large material, financial and purely human losses in the field of innovation).

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Russian science and applied scientific research). The country has seriously lagged behind in the development and use of management technologies, in the registration and protection of knowledge ownership, in the creation of mechanisms for the practical use of the latest technological solutions.

Russia needs to improve its long-term development strategy, push for the rise of science, and create an integrated system for managing intellectual potential. The main obstacles on this path are bureaucratization and corruption of the state apparatus, a rather low level of public confidence in "their" state.

The situation in China and the problems that the country faced were somewhat different.

In December 1978, the 3rd plenum of the CPC Central Committee of the 11th convocation initiated a course of openness and reform in China, the goal of which was to abandon the Soviet model of economy and move towards building "socialism with Chinese characteristics".

By proclaiming economic growth as the criterion of efficiency, the CCP recognized the commodity nature of the economy and multi - structure, and the plan and market as means of economic regulation, rather than economic antipodes. At the same time, the leading sectors of the economy remained in the hands of the state.

Changes were also made to the CCP's political leadership mechanism. The construction of" socialism with Chinese characteristics " was proclaimed to embody the theory of the initial stage of socialism*. The CCP's internal transformation has transformed it into a publicly recognized institution of public administration and a leader of a strong vertical of power. Over the past decades, the Chinese Communist Party has managed to form a model of an effective political system and restore the traditional principle of regulating Chinese public life-not through the authority of force, but through the power of authority.

China realized the importance of actively engaging in globalization before Russia did. In particular, even at the 15th Congress of the CPC (1997), it was concluded that it was necessary to switch to the export orientation of the Chinese economy. In March 2000, Chinese President Jiang Zemin proclaimed the transition to an active foreign economic strategy - "go outside", calling this strategy "the main battleground". According to him, it will allow China to make up for the lack of national natural resources, actively export the products of the national economy and import newer equipment, develop new industries, and finally gradually form its own multinational corporations (TNCs) and successfully participate in global competition. It is worth noting that over the past 10 to 15 years, the Chinese economy has shown relatively low sensitivity to recessions and crises in the global economy and trade.

China is showing impressive results in implementing its modernization model. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in 2010, China's nominal GDP ($5.878 trillion) surpassed Japan's ($5.459 trillion) and became the second largest country in the world after the United States ($14.658 trillion).3. The Russian Federation is in 11th place ($1.46 trillion) 4.

The country ranks 1st in the world in terms of gold and foreign exchange reserves, in April 2011 its foreign exchange reserves for the first time exceeded $3 trillion 5, followed by Japan ($1.14 trillion 6) and the Russian Federation (521 billion 7).

Back in 2009, China ranked 1st in the world in terms of exports - $1.2 trillion (Germany - $1.12 trillion, the United States-1.05 trillion) and 2nd in terms of imports - $1 trillion (the United States - $ 1.6 trillion, Germany - $938 billion 8).

However, as noted above, China ranked 94th in the world in terms of nominal per capita income ($4,382) in 2010.

CHINA ALSO HAS A LOT OF PROBLEMS

At the same time, a number of important features and serious problems of China's current economic development should be noted.

Experience shows that a 1% slowdown in Chinese growth leads to a reduction in the number of employed people by 4 million. Since 1985, when the unemployment rate reached the lowest level in the last 25 years - 1.8%, this indicator has been constantly growing, although relatively slowly: in 2000 - 2010, it fluctuated between 4% and 4.3% 9. The number of unemployed and underemployed residents, which makes up impressive figures, combined with the annual growth of the population of the Republic of Moldova, is growing at a growth of the working-age population (by 10-12 million people per year) This creates a serious problem for the state, which must create tens of millions of new jobs in order to cope with the threat of serious social problems.

A kind of payment for the phenomenal growth of the Chinese economy was the extremely increased shortage of many natural resources (especially oil), which forces the PRC to increase its imports annually.

Even more important is the acute shortage of arable land caused by urbanization and industrial development, as well as the lack of fresh water, which is not just an indisputable fact, but already has a serious impact on the socio-economic life of China. During the reforms, investments in the agricultural sector turned out to be disproportionately small compared to huge investments in the city. During the reform period, scientific and technological progress almost did not affect the Chinese countryside. Recently, in some years, there has even been a gap between the level of grain production and continuously growing demand, a gap that China has been forced to cover by importing grain. It is clear that these problems are closely related to

* For more information, see: E. P. Pivovarova What is "socialism with Chinese characteristics"? // Asia and Africa Today, 2011, No. 8 (Editor's note).
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food security of the state.

In the process of the economic boom, environmental problems also sharply worsened. Heavy environmental pollution occurs. Economic growth has often been driven by enormous environmental damage (in 2009, China's carbon emissions reached 7.7 million tons, or 25.3% of the global total, and in Russia-1.57 million tons, or 5.16%) .10 According to Chinese scientists, without taking urgent concrete measures in the next 20 years, the land, water and energy crises may deepen, the volume of household and industrial waste, air pollution, deforestation, and the destruction of the genetic fund of wildlife may increase. Some experts are concerned about the environmental problems of today's China and possible changes in climate conditions in the future (for example, in 40 years) They do not exclude drying out of the Yangtze River runoff. But more than half a billion Chinese people currently live in the basin of this river.

Finally, an important feature of China's economic development is the relative sluggishness of the domestic market. The growth of the economy and the involvement of hundreds of millions of people in production lagged behind the development of needs. The fact is that the Chinese consumer behavior model is traditionally focused on saving and saving. After all, for a long time, the Chinese authorities did not pay due attention to the social security of people, while commercialization affected many areas of public life, in particular health and education. In order to be treated, educate their children, and have funds for their old age, people were forced to constantly save part of their income. (China's savings rate is currently the highest in the world.) At the same time, due to the huge shortage of available profitable financial instruments (stocks, bonds, etc.), savings are stored in state savings banks.

Recently, the situation has been changing for the better, but consumer demand lags far behind investment*.

HOW TO OVERCOME DIFFICULTIES

It is important to emphasize that the current Chinese leadership understands these problems and features of development, and a long-term active foreign economic strategy has been formulated taking them into account.

The leaders of the People's Republic of China managed to mobilize all the forces of the country and concentrate them on crucial areas for further building up its economic potential.

In the 21st century, as announced in China, the country will implement a policy of "transnational management".

Maintaining and even reducing the export orientation of the national economy due to the smooth turn to the domestic market, the PRC is increasing foreign investment (attracting foreign investment and withdrawing its own capital) and the development of transnational entrepreneurship, in particular, joining global TNCs, up to the creation of its own. The Chinese have learned to follow their thesis of "turning weakness into strength", that is, to maximize the use of the country's huge resources of cheap labor in the interests of foreign economic expansion - the most important factor that stimulated the flow of foreign capital to China.

In the context of rapid production growth, which Chinese leaders sought to combine with a breakthrough in technical modernization of the economy, the flow of foreign investment and technology played an important role.

It should be said right away that the investment situation in China is simply incomparable with the Russian one.

After all, already in the 1980s, the Chinese caught such a trend in the development of the world economy as globalization, starting to form special economic zones and create preferential (in particular, duty-free) conditions for foreign capital.

Since the mid-1980s, the improvement of the investment climate has led to the emergence of the first wave of foreign Chinese investments in China. Their average annual volume exceeded $1 billion. In total, in 1978-1991, foreign Chinese entrepreneurs invested more than $18 billion in the PRC, 11 which exceeded 77% of the total volume of foreign direct investment (FDI).12 In 2006, the volume of actually attracted FDI exceeded $70 billion, 13 which put the PRC on the 1st place in the world in this indicator. In 2007 They reached $74.8 billion, with overseas Chinese accounting for 65% of total FDI in 2007.**

Russia did not have and does not have such a reserve.

For Russia, a negative aspect in this regard is also the criminalization of the economy: its merging with the criminal world and bureaucracy. According to the International Center for Prison Research, in China, despite the huge difference in the population, in 2010 there were only 2 times more prisoners than in Russia: 1.65 million people against 0.8 million. China and Russia are ranked 2nd and 3rd in the world by this indicator. The absolute "champion" for many years remains the United States: 2.3 million prisoners as of 31.12.2009 14

China is quite active in announcing its ambitious offensive plans on world markets. In particular, it is interested in acquiring a number of oil fields and other minerals in Africa, South America, and Central Asia***.

* For more information, see: Zhiguleva V. V. China on the way to the "consumer society" / / Asia and Africa Today, 2011, No. 9 (ed.).

** For more information, see: Afonasyeva A. A. How foreign Chinese help the PRC / / Asia and Africa Today. 2011, No. 8 (editor's note).
*** For more information, see: Samartsev V. V. Kitay skupaet resursy [China buys up resources] / / Aziya i Afrika segodnya, 2010, No. 10 (ed.).

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China's involvement in globalizing processes sometimes takes on an unexpected and pretentious character. For example, the Chinese are ready to acquire gold deposits in Russia or iron ore in Chile, lease coastal islands with an area of at least 500 square meters for up to 50 years, lease land plots in the Amur Region and conduct agricultural work there by their own peasants from Heihe County (which is opposite Blagoveshchensk), etc.

In the context of global competition, maintaining a worthy place in the world requires leading countries to have a sufficiently high level of innovative (including scientific) development.

Meanwhile, China has significantly lagged behind in the development of basic science. The population of the country as a whole is characterized by a low cultural and technical level. Only about 3% of the population graduated from higher education institutions and equivalent higher courses (although this is about 40 million people). In addition, China is characterized by a value orientation towards copying and imitating the intellectual achievements of other countries and well-known models.

But now in China there are significant changes in the introduction of modern knowledge and technology to the population.

Many Chinese people were educated abroad, mastered Western languages, got acquainted with the achievements of modern science and technology (up to theft, scientific and technical espionage, actively attracting foreign scientists to work in the PRC), mastered modern management systems and gained the ability to create independently.

In total, between 1978 and 2009, 1.62 million people went abroad to study, and almost half a million returned to China, or slightly less than one-third. In January 2011, a new "Thousand Young" program was launched to support young talents returning to China. It is planned that this program will cover about 2 thousand young people from among foreign Chinese within 5 years. Each participant is allocated 500 thousand yuan (more than $77 thousand): in the first year - 100 thousand, and then the remaining amount for 3 years for research activities*.

The Chinese have realized that innovation requires active state participation: since 1999, the share of research and development expenditures in China's GDP has doubled to 1.5%, reaching $100 billion in 2010. In this indicator, China is second only to the United States ($325 billion) and Japan ($123 billion). The Chinese government plans to increase these costs to $300 billion by 2020, or 2.5% of GDP.15
There are many examples of recent technological achievements in China (space exploration, construction of nuclear power plants, development and creation of high-speed trains - for example, the CRH380AL electric locomotive, created in China, on December 3, 2010 on the Zaozhuang - Benpu section of the Beijing - Shanghai high-speed railway, showed the world's highest speed-486.1 km/h).hour, etc.).

The Chinese, following the Japanese, are showing a willingness to learn-

* For more information, see: Sergeeva A. A. Search for effective use of the Diaspora. Asia and Africa Today, 2011, No. 9 (Editor's note).
page 5
new technologies for mass production. The question is whether the efforts of the Chinese educated elite will continue to be effective in the face of the cultural and technical backwardness of the majority of the population.

THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE TO A PARTNERSHIP

The prospect of further rise of China, as is known, has caused a far from unequivocal reaction in the world, including among domestic political scientists.

The range of assessments ranges from enthusiastic-panegyric ("The XXI century is the century of China") to negative - pessimistic ("The rise of China is a deadly threat to Russia").

In our opinion, Russia's entering into a strategic partnership with China is one of the few serious foreign policy successes of the Russian leadership in recent years. The partnership between the Russian Federation and China has demonstrated its long-term prospects.

Among the various forms of partnership relations with various countries that China currently has in the international arena (for example, with India, Japan, even with the United States, etc.), the Chinese side considers partnership with Russia to be the most advanced. And these are not empty words: in China's relations with Russia, there are fewer problems and more areas of mutually beneficial cooperation than with other major players on the world stage - the United States, Japan, India and the European Union.

There is no alternative to partnership relations between our countries, although, of course, their possible adaptation to the changing situation is quite likely and even necessary. One can imagine that as China continues to grow in power and as its foreign policy becomes more assertive, particularly in connection with Taiwan's reunification plans, the US response to China will become tougher.

In this case, Russia may face a serious problem of choosing its position more precisely.

Of course, China is not an easy and sometimes difficult partner. And the problems in our relationship are quite enough.

We should not turn a blind eye to the fact that over the past 15 years, the ratio of economic potentials of our two countries has significantly changed in favor of China. If we exclude from the comparative analysis the production of hydrocarbon fuels, where we have a huge advantage, and do not touch on Russia's advance in the production of weapons, nuclear energy, and rocket technology, the comparison of many other areas of the economy will not be in our favor.

The average annual growth rate of Chinese GDP is 1.5-2.5 times higher than that of Russia. Market relations in China are also more developed than in our country.

Naturally, the gap in economic power and the change of roles in the Russian-Chinese exchange of new and high-tech products hurts our ego (and not only our ego) and is a definite challenge to Russia, at least to its producers. The only natural Russian response to this serious challenge can and should be our economic, scientific and technical development.

The economic importance of China for Russia is still quite high today, and it will continue to increase in the future. It is much more difficult to increase the economic importance of Russia for China, in particular, by overcoming a certain, if not serious, imbalance between the political and trade-economic ties between the two countries.

Thus, according to the Federal Customs Service of the Russian Federation, in 2010 the Russian-Chinese trade turnover reached $59.3 billion, an increase of 50.3% compared to 2009. At the same time, Russian exports to China amounted to $20.3 billion, Russian imports from China - $39.0 billion. Russia's negative balance is $18.7 billion.

China ranked 1st among Russia's foreign trade partners (3rd in 2009), including 6th in terms of exports and 1st in terms of imports. China's share in Russia's foreign trade turnover reached 9.6%. Russia ranks 13th among China's foreign trade partners 16.

At the same time, according to the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China, in 2010, China's bilateral trade with the European Union reached $479.71 billion, with the United States - $385.34 billion, with Japan - $297.77 billion, and with the ASEAN countries - $292.78 billion.17
A serious factor was the fact that in recent years, military-technical cooperation between the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China has virtually come to naught. The main items of Russian exports to China remain oil, chemical fertilizers,and roundwood.

In addition, there is a very acute problem of criminalizing our economic ties (especially in the Far East). Some of China's exports to Russia are actually smuggled (the so-called "gray customs clearance", according to some estimates, reaches $2 billion). annually). The Chinese are quite law-abiding by nature, but on one condition-if the officials are not corrupt. Otherwise, both fish can be caught on a foreign side, and timber can be illegally exported across the border (as a result, forests in the Chita region have practically disappeared - 10% remain - including with the "help" of the Chinese).

One-sided raw material exports and huge imports in terms of nomenclature for a long time make the Russian economy, in a certain sense of the word, hostage to the external market, including the Chinese one. It is clear that this situation does not meet Russia's strategic interests. In relations with the People's Republic of China, the task of moving to economic cooperation, high-tech scientific exchange, enhancing investment cooperation, and developing banking infrastructure is acute.

So far, the economies of Russia and China are practically not in contact-

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in the world market as competitors (except for metal). However, some political scientists have already begun to think about the prospect when the political reserve of the Russian-Chinese partnership will be saturated with the economic component. In other words, how will our possible competition with the Chinese on world markets affect political relations between Russia and China?

Apparently, the entrepreneurial activity of Chinese people in Russia will increase and become more diverse, including careful attention to scientific and technological achievements, inviting Russian specialists to work permanently in Chinese research institutes, etc.

Hypothetically, the emergence of certain confrontational elements in Russian-Chinese relations cannot be ruled out in the short term. It should be borne in mind that part of the Chinese elite is traditionally quite reserved towards Russia, and sometimes unfriendly. In turn, it cannot be ruled out that certain circles of the Russian political and economic elite also react cautiously, cautiously, and perhaps negatively to the economic and political rise of China and the strengthening of its regional and international positions.

It should be noted in this regard that globalization opens up significant prospects for Russian-Chinese co-development.

Among the examples of international cooperation today are plans to create a grandiose energy and transcontinental bridge from Russia to Japan, China, North and South Korea, and in the future to Southeast Asia. The realization of Russia's obvious comparative advantages-the availability of energy resources, a vast territory, and the ability to perform efficient transit functions - allows it to firmly enter the system of economic relations in the Asia-Pacific region on a mutually beneficial basis.

Globalization can acquire not just a geographical, but also a political and economic dimension. Large-scale attraction of Chinese investments to Siberia and the Far East and, in turn, the involvement of Russian manufacturers in solving the problems of developing the northeast and west of the PRC can, in particular, significantly revive the Russian machine-building complex, first in an innovative direction, and then in the form of mass production of modern products.

Today, the fruitfulness of the Russian-Chinese inter-civilizational dialogue largely depends on the ability of both sides to smooth out the extremes of both "Westernism" and" pochvennichestvo "in the form of" national egoism "or aggressive" economic nationalism " (D. A. Medvedev spoke about these elements at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum in 2008), and effectively defend the place and role of the state. their civilizational values in the era of globalization as integral attributes of a diverse world.

The main lesson that the Chinese have learned from the 20th century is the need for peaceful and stable development. Despite, or perhaps even in spite of, our Russian pro-European mentality, well-established by centuries of history, which persistently draws us to Europe, we need to understand the place and role of China in the strategic perspective of our historical development.

In short, the Russian-Chinese partnership requires new horizons. This process, however, is unlikely to be quick or easy.

Our regular author-sinologist Yuri Vladimirovich Chudodeev turned 80 years old. The editors congratulate him on his anniversary and wish him good health and new great creative success.

1 World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011. 5. Report for Selected Countries and Subjects - http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x

2 World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011. 5. Report for Selected Countries and Subjects. Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) per capita GDP - http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?

3 World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011. 5. Report for Selected Countries and Subjects...

4 Ibidem - http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/weodata/weorept.aspx

5 World-Record China Reserves Pass $3 Trillion in Policy Challenge for G-20 // Bloomberg News - 14.04.2011 - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2011 - 04 - 14/china-says-foreign-currency-reserves-rose-to-3 - 04-trillion-at-end-march.html

6 International Monetary Fund. Japan. International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity. May 2011 - http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/ir/IRProcessWeb/data/jpn/eng/curjpn.htm

7 Bank of Russia. International Reserves of the Russian Federation (January 2011-July 2011) - http://www.cbr.ru/hd_base/mrrf

8 World Trade Organization International Trade Statistics 2010. Table 1.8. Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade, 2009 - http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2010_e/its2010_e.pdf

9 Index Mundi. China Unemployment Rate - http://www.indexmundi.com/china/unemployment_rate.html

10 World Economic Outlook Database, April 2011. 5. Report for Selected Countries and Subjects - https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key

11 Haiwei huaqiao huazhen yu zhongguo gaige kaifang (Foreign Chinese and the policy of reform and openness in the PRC). Beijing, 2009, p. 271.

12 Calculated from: Zhongguo Tongji nianjian, 2000 (Chinese Statistical Yearbook, 2000). Beijing, 2000, p. 604.

13 Huaqiao huazhen yu xin zhongguo (Overseas Chinese and New China). Guangzhou, 2009, p. 231.

14 ICPS. International Centre for Prison Studies. World Prison Brief - http://www.prisonstudies.org/info/worldbrief/wpb_stats.php?area-all&category=wb_popto tal

Goldman Sachs. 15 The New Geography of Global Innovation. Global Markets Institute. 20.09.2010 - http://www2.goldmansachs.com/ideas/global-markets-institute/featured-research/innovation-d oc.pdf

16 Website of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. Foreign economic activity. Trade and economic cooperation between the Russian Federation and China - http://www.economy.gov.ru/minec/activity/sections/foreigneconomicactivity/cooperation/eco nomicaa/doc 2011CJ318_7

17 http://russian.china.org.cn/news/txt/2011 - 01/11/content_21710796.htm


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