Forecasting world development based on a civilizational approach can, under certain circumstances, be a productive tool for forming an idea of the nature and trends of changes in the components of the world order. In any case, such forecasting can offer some ways of knowing the coming period by the method of layer-by-layer analysis of the features of the functioning of economic systems and the socio-cultural factors operating in them.

Clarifying the image of the future, which claims to be at least relatively correct and adequate, should be combined with the calculation of options based on mathematical methods that provide a higher degree of accuracy, and supplemented by the results of forecasts carried out for all regions of the world by different departments in order to formulate more reliable conclusions. Otherwise, the effectiveness of forecasting can be considered low, taking into account the above considerations, as well as the presence of factors that complicate the preparation of the final product, the significance of which for the forecast is detracted from by their vagueness and low suitability for unambiguous interpretation.

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But even if it is possible to ensure that all the components of the forecast are linked in a logical chain and to some extent justified, the question remains open as to how much it will meet the realities of the coming era and how it can be used so that what is happening now does not become a prerequisite for negative consequences in the future. Expediency considerations for such projects are to benefit from them during the foreseeable period when appropriate measures can be taken to correct processes or phenomena that are essential for future development. In the short term, measured in five years, they help to develop tactical solutions to problems that can affect the life of one generation and thus make it easier for generations to come.

State-wide planning is mainly carried out in this time range, but long-term or strategic consequences are not taken into account in current activities, although it is axiomatic that most macro-processes have a high degree of inertia and cannot be adjusted from one point. Therefore, the analysis of tasks that go far beyond these limits is hardly the object of primary activity of the relevant practical bodies. Related stories are left to the expert community, which sets and theoretically justifies the quantitative and qualitative parameters of development processes, based on current conditions. But this does not make the results obtained any less hypothetical, since in such cases, due to the extreme remoteness of the results, they cannot be verified by practice, which can only serve as a criterion for the truth of long-term calculations and forecasts for individual problems or their groups.

In the case of the Arab world, which is highly differentiated, attempts at long-term forecasting are likely to be mostly speculative, if only because current national statistics are not always reliable, and for this reason, aggregate data on the region calculated on this basis for many decades to come can only be estimated, so it is difficult to measure the gap between the current state of affairs and the desired period. As an object of forecasting, the Arab world is extremely complex in itself due to objective reasons that make it difficult to distinguish the general and special aspects of its development. Reducing the regularities of this process to a certain limited number of factors, the action of which can exhaustively outline the long-term prospects for its integration into the world economic and political space and place in the system of the international division of labor, is in principle possible, but it is associated with many obstacles that can negate any prediction or narrow its scope so much that it just a skeletal display of the search object.

Moreover, it is difficult to speak about the Arab countries in general, since too much divides them typologically, economically, and politically. In their depths, the most diverse phenomena and trends are closely intertwined, polarizing the Middle Eastern reality and allowing only the division of countries according to the physical level of development as the only indisputable one. But there are still some points that make possible some generalizations and assumptions that determine the degree of readiness of Arab countries to accept the modern economic and political order.

Predictive work is often sketchy and abstract in nature, since the set of tools for reading situations in the future is limited. However, there are also works performed professionally and based on a well-thought-out methodology that are logically justified. Nevertheless, if they are isolated, they often appear as "accidental" phenomena, a kind of game of the mind, a training of the imagination and formal thinking.

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ability to discuss and analyze a topic. The maximum benefit from them can be achieved only in one case. If they form a certain set, with the help of which the attention of the living generation can be drawn to the needs of the future, and the level of responsibility of modern institutions of power rises to the understanding of the need to ensure that in the course of their activities the skill in predicting the consequences of this activity is transferred to the remote

It is clear that demographic, energy, food and other resources are of great importance for the formation of material living conditions. But no less important should be given to such areas as science, education, healthcare, ecology and others, which form the humanitarian field of a particular society and are a necessary prerequisite for achieving progress. These components largely determine the state of the human factor, which acts as the same resource and the same participant in reproduction as the rest.

However, the prospects for these problems are hardly calculated, and society pays no more attention to them than, for example, warming, desertification or the conservation of biological diversity, although these latter, despite the perceived danger to the Arab world, do not go beyond the development of preliminary approaches, sluggish discussions or the preparation of recommendations, little supported by efforts consistent with the needs of the Arab world. with their importance.

Meanwhile, the situation in the Arab world's humanitarian sphere is so complex and sluggish, and changes have been so insignificant in recent decades, that it is difficult to predict when a radical turn towards more dynamic growth may begin, guaranteeing a qualitative improvement in the human factor. Such a turnaround is absolutely necessary. But it does not have a time frame and will most likely depend on the exhaustion of opportunities that allow the Arab world to exploit an extensive and intensive development model and exist in an environment of discord about the direction of movement, when oil monarchies represent a certain approximation of involvement in the information future, and other Arab regimes cannot yet fully integrate into the industrial the present. This is typical of the situation when the rationalization of economic development concepts did not lead not only to the economic self-sufficiency of the Arab world, but also to the creation of a dominant ideology that can take into account the peculiarity of the Arab mentality and determine its path between the left-wing socialist and right-wing neoliberal models.

In such an intra-Arab "competition", those who have the best financial support and can therefore succeed in the race for global leaders, borrowing funds from them and adopting the technique of movement, take the lead. But in any case, this movement is inadequate to the original, since it only mechanically repeats its contours and does not carry its energy, essentially being imitative.

The reflected nature of the Arab ascent to progress affects its image. The Arab world appears to be a sedentary entity in the sense that it is still largely a preserve of conservatism, which does not tolerate changes that can destroy the foundations of traditionalism. It does not generate new ideas that are important for world development, but its peculiarity is that it does not fall into the ideological vacuum that threatens industrial nations that are focused on neoliberalism as a doctrine that absolutizes the role of money and unlimited consumption, which has already led to a global crisis. This is because in the Arab environment religion often replaces ideology, and even if a political doctrine is brought to the fore, it is only superimposed on the religious background and sooner or later dissolves into it for the reason that ideas are somehow formed.-

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They are formed within the religious consciousness and fed by it. In these circumstances, the emergence of a new course in economics or politics is more possible as an act of mechanical borrowing of concepts and value systems that have emerged outside the Arab world. At the same time, this process should not be reckless. Practice shows that in the Arab area, the borrowing of ideas does not occur in its pure form. They always acquire a local color and are clothed in more or less acceptable forms for the mass consciousness, being adapted to the actual Arab ideas about the structure of society.

The development of a unified concept of economic and social development on this basis, which meets the needs of Arab society as such, at the current stage seems utopian. In this case, the goal should be unification of the Arab world, and such a goal is recognized as hardly achievable given the typological diversity that divides rather than unites the Arab world. The same topic is discussed as important for understanding the mechanisms of intercivilizational interaction. On a broader basis, viewed through the prism of globalization, which implies the leveling of civilizations, in other words, their subordination to the dominant one, the relations that arise in the course of this process are perceived as a kind of tool for universalizing economic and cultural norms and undermining the vital foundations of the non-Western part of the world, which is heterogeneous and differs internally in

The Arab region is no less differentiated and has more than one center of power in its territory - economic, political, and military, which in this respect makes it a cast from a more general picture of the world. This explains the discord over development paths, estimates of economic potential, prospects for the mobilization of natural resources, and other growth parameters, reflecting the lack of clarity about the possibilities of economic recovery in Arab countries. Most importantly, it is a failure to foresee the future and a pessimism about the real place of the Arab world in the rapidly transforming international community.

The idea that the special Arab mission is to maintain spiritual leadership in the Muslim world inspires a growing number of Arab analysts and experts. The spiritual care of the vast masses of co-religionists in different parts of the world now occupies the thoughts of only one country, while others are increasingly turning to the material aspects of modernity and are looking for the possibility of creating reliable economic institutions, a new business environment, and effective mechanisms for managing them. But the role of the region as a generator of ideas and meanings valid outside the sphere of special relations with the world Islamic Ummah remains insignificant. The only success is in Islamic finance and the introduction of appropriate banking instruments, but the scope of their activities is limited and will hardly go far beyond what currently exists.

Against this background, the processes of development of the Arab area can take different forms depending on the specific socio-economic and other conditions characteristic of each individual Arab country or their groups formed on the basis of the homogeneity of one or several growth factors. At the same time, we should probably assume that the movement will occur along multidirectional vectors. This will add even greater variability to the dynamics of processes, and Arab kinship alone will not be enough to achieve convergence of the Arab environment. Moreover, the indicators of the future may be influenced by both unforeseen factors of external origin and "intra-system" factors, but with delayed results, as was the case, for example, with the birth rate, which was recognized as "appalling" in the 90s of the last century, but in demographically significant Arab countries to date, it has fallen by a noticeable amount, although in others it has slightly increased. The fact of falling is important primarily from a psychological point of view as evidence that

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in Arab society, tasks that were considered unattainable can be solved. The mechanism of this phenomenon is not fully understood. And its study is of practical importance, since there may also be trends that are contrary to actions based on the expectation of further development of a positive effect. It is precisely the ambiguity of the results of the influence of many factors that makes the development of the Arab East countries multi-variable, which may be associated with its going far beyond scenario schemes.

Therefore, against the background of absolute ignorance about the distant future, the miscalculation of options does not exclude significant deviations from a certain axial value, which may be due to underestimation or overestimation of the essence and scale of the desired and related phenomena. And this creates natural doubts about the final results, since the choice of a reliable vector is objectively difficult, and this can detract from the real value of the data obtained. After all, even the choice itself from several options, the reliability of which remains unknown and supported only by mathematized calculations from the depths of time space, contains a large element of randomness and may turn out to be untrue. All the more so when it comes to taking concrete measures in the future to stop the negative consequences of natural or anthropogenic order in the present.

Demographic growth is important not only for the formation of labor resources. In modern conditions, it also plays a great role as a source of migration potential. The latter is most clearly realized in the redistribution of "human capital" on an international scale and in the transfer of its mostly economically inefficient, but rather socially and politically active part from the Arab-Muslim world to industrialized countries.

The proposed scenarios of the state of European society as a result of the influx of migrants from the Asian-African region largely exhaust the options for interaction between different socio-cultural models and forms of economic behavior. However, this does not exclude the possibility of adding to the picture at the expense of at least one point, which is considered essential by Arab expertise in analyzing the consequences of interaction between Western and Arab-Muslim civilizations. After all, not only does the European dialogue partner experience inconveniences from communicating with people from another world, but representatives of the latter are also exposed to undesirable effects for them. And the fact that they voluntarily arrived in the host countries and must adhere to their accepted orientation and restrictions does not deter at least some of them from actively protesting against attempts to assimilate them.

The blurring effect of direct contact with the Western antipode, as well as the explicit and implicit forms of its influence on the socio-cultural bonds that keep the immigrant community from collapsing, show that the diaspora exposed to external influences can remain within the framework of its identity, only without yielding to attempts to correct the mechanisms of its socio-cultural regulation and reproduction of spiritual values.

Interaction with the Western way of life is very ambiguous for a large part of immigrants, and the positive nature of living together can easily be replaced by a destructive impact. At the same time, the situation tends to quickly take the form of a conflict that is mistaken for a conflict of civilizations, although in reality we are usually talking about extremist acts of a limited immigrant group and a localized response from the authorities. In the first case, there is a need to preserve national identity at the cost of imposing customs on members of the community that may not be observed in their homeland. In the second case, there is a need to prevent the isolation of the non-ethnic diaspora in a new environment and avoid the emergence and expansion of exclusion zones and misunderstandings between the indigenous and alien populations.

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The contradictions between the two communities have an objective origin. In the environment of the host nation as a stronger subject of intercivilizational interaction, the weakest party should independently look for ways to successfully grow into a higher macrosphere in terms of economic and social status, but in reality, large contingents of immigrants remain a foreign body and turn into a defective element in a foreign civilizational space. Even the experience of their settlement in a foreign land in the form of separate quarters or entire districts in cities, as it were, determines their course of action. They "cluster" in the hope of finding a means of self-support and mutual assistance, trying to survive collectively, and dispersed existence outside the close neighborhood of fellow tribesmen is rejected as condemning them to a fruitless search for a place in life.

Pockets of Muslim society abroad can be classified as sufficiently stable and viable, having an unspent internal potential and a significant margin of safety, which allows them to actively resist the establishment of the orientation and norms of the dominant civilizational area in their environment. However, this does not mean that the Arab-Muslim minority is not affected by the times, lives outside the world experience and is guaranteed to be fenced off from new trends, especially being in the zone of their direct influence.

Experience shows that the diaspora, despite some excesses, generally manages to follow the principle of peaceful coexistence in an alien environment. But at the same time, the process of its adaptation is not linear and proceeds according to complex laws, reflecting not only the confrontation with the external environment, but also the internal conflicts of the current state, imposed on the contradictions introduced from the homeland. In the current circumstances, there is no quick solution to the problem, and the rate of growing resentment on both sides periodically exceeds the effectiveness of measures and means taken to prevent major ethnic conflicts.

If in the current conditions the Arab-Muslim diaspora cannot become an organic part of Western society, then with the expected significant population growth in the developing Asian-African region, with the population reduction in Western countries and the continuation of the policy of accepting new immigrant contingents, the options for coexistence of representatives of opposite civilizations may turn out to be very tough, leaving no choice. Especially if migrations take the form of peoples ' resettlement under the influence of tightened environmental factors and the loss of natural landscapes of the original characteristics that provided at least a minimal level of survival.

It is possible that intercontinental migrations of large masses of the population in the future will be able to provoke conflicts of varying degrees of intensity between existing civilizations. However, such a development of events is seen in a rather distant perspective, and now it can only be discussed presumably, allowing for some abstract sketches of the future. Moreover, there are serious objective constraints for any forecasts, excluding short-term ones, since the uncertainty of the results obtained in this case may exceed acceptable levels. First of all, this is due to the unpredictability of the ways of development of the world's productive forces, innovative technologies, new energy sources, as well as natural phenomena that can affect the current ideas about the future and the vectors of its development.

Being in constant contact with an unusual environment, the Arab diaspora is naturally exposed to the influence of the surrounding world, which grows and takes different forms, trying to break the civilizational bonds of the diaspora. In these circumstances, its survival depends not only on internal psychological stability or the degree of external influence, but also on the overall course of the disease.

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events in the framework of modern economic growth, characterized by the general onset of the Western world system, the globalization of development processes, the internationalization of communication spheres, the universalization of ideas about the way of life, and similar phenomena.

Against this background, much will ultimately depend on what the immigrant community sees as more attractive. Following the "patriarchal" model of existence as a means of preserving civilizational identity, ethnic solidarity, and generational continuity, or rejecting this dominant feature under the influence of the Western way of life, its intellectual pluralism, diversity of cultural communications, accessibility of economic, social, and cultural gains, and other symbols of joining an "advanced" society.

It seems obvious that over time, everything will be decided by comparing the advantages of living in the conditions of the dynamic and inertial, rational and emotional, real and contemplative struggle, characteristic of those whose civilizational identity comes into conflict with the forms of behavior adopted in other cultures. The outcome of such a "confrontation" is predictable. And naturally, this raises the question of the destructive effect of interaction and its consequences for a more receptive civilization.

It is likely that the Arab East has somehow come to terms with the loss of the fragments of its civilization in the form of diasporas, which in the course of history are somehow doomed to change and lose their former values. Most experts in the Arab world consider this situation not new. However, they are concerned about the possibility of spreading this process to the entire Arab-Muslim civilization, given its close proximity to the Western one. They fear that the impact of the latter will only increase in the light of, for example, the Mediterranean Initiative and the willingness of Arab leaders to engage in maximum economic and technical cooperation with the West, which in reality means not only the transfer of technology, but also the expansion of political stereotypes and cultural orientations that can undermine the civilizational foundations of the Arab world. Such a turn of events is seen by them as fraught with unacceptable losses and with the possibility of the process moving into an unmanageable phase, and therefore it should become an object of special concern in Arab circles in the long term.

It is possible that in the distant future, civilizations that are currently lagging behind in terms of the development of productive forces, including the Arab-Muslim one, will have just such a path of development, but it is not connected with the collapse of the fundamental humanitarian and socio-cultural foundations, but rather with the erosion of the current amorphous economic structures and political institutions and their transformation into special national or civilizational specifics, unified on the basis of borrowed models in terms of their effectiveness in terms of performing their functions.

Such an evolution, from the point of view of the current Arab elites, is unacceptable, since it threatens unprecedented complications for its successors. However, if we proceed from the postulate that progress is unstoppable, then we can assume that improving technologies that ensure intensive economic growth, improving the parameters of "human" and physical capital that bring labor productivity to the highest possible level, can lead to just such a development scenario. And combining it with healthy social forces that can consolidate the traditional and accommodate it in a new form can create a situation in which there will be no room for fear of losing the identity and civilizational essence of the Arab world.

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