The theory of demographic (or ecological) cycles is one of the new trends in socio-economic history. A distinctive feature of this direction is the use of ecological models of population dynamics. The beginning of the theory of demographic cycles was laid by the American biologist and demographer Raymond Pearl, who proved that the change in population size is described by the so-called logistic equation 1 solution to this differential equation is the logistic curve (Fig. 1). The behavior of the logistic curve shows that at first, in conditions of abundant resources and high consumption, the population size increases rapidly. However, due to limited resources, this growth is accompanied by a decline in per capita consumption (consumption curve in Figure 1). In real history, we can observe a similar situation, for example, in Qing China; data from this time have been preserved that allow us to plot curves of population growth and consumption decline (Figure 2). The decline in consumption leads to a decrease in the number of population growth decelerates, and the population stabilizes near the asymptote corresponding to the maximum possible size with minimal consumption. This state of" starvation homeostasis "is actually unstable; in the absence of food supplies, a large crop failure sooner or later causes a" demographic catastrophe", a terrible famine accompanied by epidemics. A catastrophe means a sharp decline in the population; then a period of growth begins in a new demographic cycle. Thus, from the point of view of demography, the historical process is a sequence of demographic cycles. A mirror image of demographic cycles is cyclical changes in per capita consumption, i.e. cycles of real wages (Figure 3).

The existence of demographic cycles in history was proved by Wilhelm Abel and Michael Postan in the 1930s. 2 After the work of these researchers, the cyclical theory became widely accepted; its presentation can be found in the works of well-known scientists, such as F. P. Blavatsky. Braudel, R. Cameron, E. Le Roy Laduri 3 . However, until recently, the study of demographic cycles was mainly limited to Europe and some Asian countries in modern times. Fernand Braudel suggested that the history of the East moves in the same rhythm of demographic cycles as the history of the West, but Rondo Cameron rightly pointed out the lack of evidence .4 This circumstance is due to the fact that the historian usually does not have direct data on the population size, and in the absence of such data, there was no sufficiently clear methodology for identifying the demographic cycle.

(c) 2003

page 5

In order to create such a methodology, i.e. to determine the characteristic features of the demographic cycle, the author attempted to construct a mathematical model that simulates the economic processes occurring during cycle 5 . In comparison with data from historical sources, simulation experiments allowed us to identify about 40 characteristic features of the demographic cycle 6 . Each demographic cycle begins with a period of internal colonization (or reconstruction), characterized by the availability of free land, population growth, acreage growth, construction of new (or restoration of previously destroyed) settlements, low bread prices, high labor costs, relatively high consumption, limited urban and craft development, and little economic development. rents and usury. After the depletion of free land resources, a period of Contraction occurs. This phase is characterized by the lack of free land, high land prices, low-income peasants, the ruin of peasant owners, the spread of usury and rent, the growth of large-scale land ownership, low consumption of the main mass of the population, falling real wages, cheap labor, high grain prices, frequent violations of the labor market.

page 6

Figure 3. Demographic cycles

reports of famine and natural disasters, the suspension of population growth, the departure of impoverished peasants to the cities, where they are trying to earn a living by craft or small-scale trade, the growth of cities, the development of crafts and trade, a large number of unemployed and beggars, hunger riots and uprisings, the activation of popular movements under the slogans of property redistribution and social justice, attempts to social reforms aimed at alleviating the situation of the people, irrigation works aimed at increasing land productivity, encouraging colonization and emigration policies, external wars aimed at acquiring new land and reducing demographic pressure.

Ultimately, the growing disparity between population size and available food resources leads to an eco-social crisis. This period is characterized by famine, epidemics, uprisings and civil wars, external wars, the death of large masses of the population, which takes on the character of a demographic catastrophe, the destruction or desolation of many cities, the decline of crafts and trade, high prices for bread, low prices for land, the death of a significant number of large owners and the redistribution of property, social reforms, in particular in some cases, they take on the scale of a revolution. The famous French demographer Alfred Sauvy once formulated the thesis that overpopulation breeds autocracy .7 The theory of demographic cycles explains the origin of autocracy in the following ways: overpopulation breeds famine, famine breeds revolution and civil war, and war breeds military dictatorship and autocracy. However, in order to justify this theoretical conclusion, it is necessary to trace the effect of this mechanism on the largest possible number of cycles - this is one of the tasks of this study.

The eco-social crisis weakens the state, and it can be conquered by external enemies. Conquest can also occur in the Compression phase; I will refer to the cycles that ended with conquest as interrupted cycles. In some cases, cycles are separated by intercycles - periods when internal wars and external invasions prevent economic stabilization and population recovery. A new cycle begins only after the political and economic situation stabilizes.

The features listed above for each stage of the cycle make it possible in many cases to distinguish demographic cycles even in the absence of data on the population size. The use of this method allowed us to identify more than 50 demographic features of the population.-

page 7

historical cycles in the history of the Eastern countries. It should be borne in mind that the allocation of each cycle required considerable work on the analysis of the socio-economic history of a particular country, and I do not provide detailed justifications that are available in articles on this topic .8 In some cases, it was possible to construct consumption curves that are a "mirror image" of the cycle; in other cases, the conclusion was made based on the totality of the features described above. Finally, there are cases where the available information was insufficient to draw specific conclusions. Thus, here is only a summary of information designed to confirm the thesis of Fernand Braudel that the history of mankind consists of demographic (population) cycles, just like the history of any biological population.

In the process of identifying cycles, I paid special attention to the political evolution and the evolution of property relations in connection with the influence of the demographic factor, using a classification in which the basic element is a private-owned society 9 (society A). This type of society is characterized by individual or family private ownership of land and a democratic or oligarchic form of government. According to the theory, the classical demographic cycle transforms a private-owned society into a statistic monarchy-a society characterized by the rule of autocracy, state ownership of land, and a developed system of state regulation (society B). A statist monarchy can co-exist with small peasant ownership, but it prevents the development of large-scale land ownership. Although there are often estates in a statist monarchy, there are no significant class privileges and relatively high social mobility in this society; the estates do not have a closed character. In the literature, societies of this type are often referred to as Oriental despotisms, but many Orientalists object to the use of this term .10

When external enemies (such as nomads) conquer a statist monarchy, they often retain the monarchical rule and estate structure. The conquerors are transformed into a privileged military estate, and the conquered population becomes an exploited taxable estate, thus there are great differences in the position of the estates and the estates become more closed. Societies of this kind I call class monarchies (Society C). In other cases, the conquerors divide the country into fiefs, and vassal relations characteristic of classical feudalism (society D) appear.

In addition, as a result of the weakening of state regulation in a statist monarchy, private property relations may develop and large-scale land ownership may develop. I call this type of society private monarchies (Society A b). Finally, there is a variant of feudal monarchy, when a weak monarchy coexists with feudal estates and large land ownership (society A c). Societies of this kind often appear as a result of the disintegration of class monarchies.

I. CYCLES IN THE HISTORY OF MESOPOTAMIA

1. The first Sumerian cycle (until the middle of the XXIII century BC). The primary cycle that began with the creation of civilization and therefore lasted much longer than usual. The cycle took place in the context of the existence of a private-owned society that functioned within the framework of the city-state system. Most of the land was owned by large families and could be sold; the other part belonged to large temple farms; these lands were cultivated by "workers from the temple".-

page 8

in large numbers", consisting largely of impoverished community members. The Contraction phase is marked by the ruin of peasants and other classic signs of overpopulation. The cycle ended with a civil war, demographic catastrophe, and the establishment of a statist monarchy (transformation AB).

2. The Second Sumerian cycle (mid-XXIII - mid-XXII centuries BC). During this cycle, the statist monarchy prevailed. The temple farms were subordinated to the kings and became the mainstay of the state sector of the economy, but the private sector also remained. In the Compression phase, the peasants are ruined. The cycle was interrupted by a barbarian invasion, and the country was conquered by barbarians. The catastrophe led to the downfall of the statist monarchy and a return to private ownership and the political system of city-states (transformation into c , where the index "c" at the top means conquest).

3. The Third Sumerian cycle (mid-XXII-late XXI century BC). The cycle began under the domination of a private-owned society. However, the statist monarchy has already become a social tradition, and therefore the restoration of the monarchy takes place in a phase of Contraction, even before the beginning of the eco-social crisis. In this cycle, the main part of the population was concentrated in the "workers' detachments " of state-owned temple farms. Land sales in the private sector were banned. The cycle was interrupted by a barbarian invasion, and the country was reconquered by barbarians. The catastrophe led to the fall of the statist monarchy and the establishment of a system of weak private monarchies. Temple farms became private corporations (transformation A c BA b c).

4. The first Old Babylonian cycle (the beginning of the XIX-1740s BC). The cycle was preceded by about a hundred-year intercycle (XX century BC). The restoration period began under the rule of private monarchies. During the Contraction phase, the restoration of the statist monarchy took place. As in the previous cycle, most of the population was concentrated in the "workers ' detachments" of state-owned temple farms, and land sales were prohibited. The cycle was interrupted by a barbarian invasion and civil war, but the barbarians were driven back and the war ended with the victory of the monarchy (transformation A b c B).

5. The second Old Babylonian Cycle (1740s-1590s BC). During this cycle, the statist monarchy prevailed. The cycle was interrupted by a barbarian invasion, and the country was conquered by barbarians. The catastrophe led to the fall of the statist monarchy. The Kassite conquerors became the privileged military class of the new society, but the power of the Kassite kings was weak, and the monarchy co-existed with almost independent city-states and private land ownership (transformation of VA c c).

6. The Middle Babylonian cycle (late 15th - 1150s BC). The catastrophe was more devastating than in previous cycles, and it was followed by a roughly two-century intercycle (16th-15th centuries BC). The previous social tradition is broken, and the statist monarchy is no longer revived in the next cycle, as it happened after previous disasters. The cycle is characterized by the rule of the feudal monarchy, the temple farms are again transformed into private corporations. The cycle was interrupted by a barbarian invasion, Babylon was conquered by barbarians (no transformation: A c c A c c).

7. The Middle Babylonian cycle in Assyria (early 14th - mid-11th centuries BC). Assur was not conquered by the Kassites, so the cycles in Assyria are considered separately. Since ancient times and up to the period under review, Ashur was a city-state with developed private property relations. However, at the end of the 13th century BC, the Contraction that began led to the establishment of a monarchy and a struggle between the rulers and the private oligarchy. The cycle was interrupted barbarian-

page 9

Figure 4. Consumption curve in Babylonia (610-480s BC)

the Russian invasion that led to a demographic catastrophe (transformation AA b).

8. The first Assyrian cycle (early IX - mid VIII centuries BC). The cycle was preceded by approximately a century and a half of intercycle (mid XII-early IX centuries BC). At the beginning of the cycle, as before the catastrophe, private property relations prevailed. In the Compression phase, the peasants are ruined and other signs of overpopulation are noted. The cycle ended with a civil war, a demographic catastrophe, and the establishment of a statist monarchy (transformation A b B).

9. The Second Assyrian cycle (mid-eighth to late seventh centuries BC). During this cycle, the Statist monarchy prevailed. The cycle was interrupted by a barbarian invasion, and the country was conquered by the Medes and Persians. The conquerors adopted the monarchical tradition and became the privileged military estate of the new estate monarchy (transformation of the Russian Armed Forces).

10. The first New Babylonian cycle (mid-9th century-680s BC). The cycle was preceded by a three-century intercycle (mid-11th - mid-9th centuries BC). During this cycle, Babylonia continued to have a weak feudal monarchy. The period of Contraction was filled with Assyrian invasions and the struggle of Assyrian kings with the Babylonian oligarchy. The cycle was interrupted by the Assyrian invasion, which led to a demographic catastrophe (no transformation: A c c A c c).

11. The second Neo-Babylonian cycle (610-480 BC). The cycle was preceded by a 70-year intercycle. This cycle continued to be dominated by private property relations. The cycle is relatively well documented by sources, and the data presented in the works of V. A. Dubberstein and M. A. Dandamaev 11 allow us to construct a consumption curve (Figure 4). The graph shows the number of liters of wheat that an unskilled worker could buy for a daily salary, and corresponds to the form of the curve for the classical demographic cycle. In the Contraction phase, there is a struggle between tsars and the oligarchy and attempts to establish a statist monarchy. These attempts led to the establishment of the kings ' control over many temples, but the oligarchy turned to the Persian kings for help; the result of the Persian conquest was the establishment of a class monarchy. Revolts against Persian rule led to a demographic catastrophe (transformation A c c b c).

page 10

12. The Persian Cycle (480s-330s BC). Persian warriors received small estates that were farmed by slaves and tenants. The contraction led to the disintegration of the military class; despite the prohibitions, impoverished warriors sold their estates to usurers. Thus, the estate monarchy was transformed into a society with private property relations. The disintegration of the Persian military class led to the fall of the Persian monarchy under the blows of new conquerors - the Macedonians and Greeks (transformation C c A c c c ).

13. The Seleucid cycle (270-130-ies BC). The cycle was preceded by a 60-year intercycle (330-270-ies BC). Macedonians and Greeks replaced the Persians in the role of the military estate of the estate monarchy. The contraction led to the weakening of this monarchy and its slow transformation into a society dominated by private property relations (as in the previous cycle). The result of the disintegration of the Greek-Macedonian military class was the fall of the Seleucid state under the blows of the new conquerors-the Parthians (transformation C c A c d c .

14. The Parthian cycle (50s BC-160s AD). The cycle was preceded by an 80-year intercycle (130s-50s BC). The Parthian conquest led to the decline of the monarchical tradition. The social synthesis took place under the conditions of the predominance of Parthian nomadic traditions, and its result was the birth of a feudal society. The leaders of the noble Parthian families were almost independent, and the assembly of leaders placed kings on the throne. Ordinary warriors received small estates that were farmed by their slaves or tenants. The contraction further weakened the state and led to feudal anarchy; during the period of anarchy, the Roman invasion and plague caused a demographic catastrophe. The crisis led to some strengthening of the monarchy (transformation of D c A c).

15. The first Sasanian cycle (230-490-ies). The cycle was preceded by a 70-year intercycle (160-230-ies). Compression at the end of the cycle led to a social revolution and the establishment of a statist monarchy. The feudal nobility was destroyed, the estates of ordinary soldiers were controlled by the state (transformation A c B).

16. The second Sasanian cycle (490-630-ies). The cycle took place under the rule of the Statist monarchy, was interrupted by the Arab invasion and the conquest of the country by the Arabs. The conquest led to the establishment of a class-based monarchy (transformation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine ).

17. Cycle of the Umayyad era (650-750-ies). The caliphs did not distribute land to their soldiers. The Arab military class received their salaries at the expense of state taxes collected from the population, so the taxes were very heavy. As the population grew and the Contraction began, the peasants ' allotments shrank and taxes became unbearable. A huge revolt ensued, and the Umayyad dynasty was overthrown. The uprising and civil war led to a demographic catastrophe (no transformation: C c C).

18. The first cycle of the Abbasid era (750-830-ies). The new Abbasid dynasty deceived the expectations of the people and did not reduce taxes. At the beginning of the 9th century, a Contraction began, which again caused uprisings. Caliph Ma'mun was forced to reduce taxes and abolish the salaries that the Arabs received. The uprisings were suppressed, but they caused a new demographic catastrophe and led to the collapse of the Arab Caliphate (the transformation of the Sabah). The data presented in the works of E. Ashtor and O. G. Bolshakov [12] make it possible to construct curves of wheat prices (Fig. 5, black triangles denote demographic catastrophes). Because wages remain stable over long periods, price curves mirror consumption curves, and price cycles mirror consumption cycles and demographic cycles.

page 11

Figure 5. Price cycles in Iraq (740s-940s BC)

Figure 6. Consumption curve in Iraq (1130-1240s BC)

19. The second cycle of the Abbasid era (830-930-ies). The collapse of the Arab Caliphate was accompanied by a weakening of central power and state regulation. Private property relations were revived, land was sold freely, and a private monarchy was gradually formed. At the beginning of the tenth century, there was a contraction: the ruin of the peasants, the growth of large-scale land ownership, the growth of cities, the development of crafts and trade. The contraction led to a demographic catastrophe, a terrible famine, and a plague epidemic in the 930s. After this catastrophe, a long period of internecine wars and Turkic invasions began. In the middle of the XI century, the country was conquered by the Turks, who became the military estate of the new estate monarchy, the Seljukid Sultanate (transformation A b C c).

20. The Seljuk cycle (1050-1150-ies). Turkic warriors received estates with peasants and, despite the opposition of the central government, increased the exploitation of peasants. In the Compression phase, peasant uprisings began, and the Ismaili rebels used tactics of individual terror against the Turkic nobility. The assassinations of sultans and ministers led to the weakening of the central government, to internecine wars and the collapse of the state. In the middle of the 12th century, the caliphs of Baghdad were able to take power away from the Turks and restore the statist monarchy (transformation C c B).

21. The cycle of the late Caliphate era (1160-1250-ies). It is characterized by the rule of the statist monarchy and significant development of state regulation.-

page 12

vania. In the Compression phase, uprisings are observed in cities. The cycle was interrupted by the Mongol conquest (transformation of the SUN c). The data presented in O. G. Bolshakov's paper 13 allow us to construct a consumption curve (Fig. 6). The graph shows the number of liters of wheat that an employee could buy on a daily salary. The difference in numbers compared to Fig. 4. is explained by the fact that when plotting the graph, Fig. 4 among others, the prices of the famine years were taken into account, and only "normal" prices were taken into account when plotting the graph in Figure 6.

II. CYCLES OF EGYPTIAN HISTORY

1. The first cycle of the Early Kingdom (before the reign of Pharaoh Mina). The first centuries of Egyptian history (as in Mesopotamia) are characterized by the existence of city-states (nomes), but there is no information about the spread of private property. Pharaoh Mina is credited with founding a statist monarchy based (as in Mesopotamia) on state-run temple farms.

2. The second cycle of the Early Kingdom (from Mina to Hasechem). Throughout this cycle, the statist monarchy prevailed. The cycle ended with civil war and demographic catastrophe during the reign of Pharaoh Hasechem.

3. The cycle of the Ancient Kingdom (III-VI dynasties). At the beginning of the cycle, the statist monarchy prevailed; in the Compression phase, the processes of privatization of state-owned temple farms and the decomposition of the monarchy are noted. The cycle ended with revolts, civil war, and barbarian invasions. The catastrophe led to the fall of the statist monarchy and a return to the city-state system, which combined the monarchical system and the principles of private property. It should be noted that the first three Egyptian cycles are insufficiently documented and the selection is hypothetical.

4. The first cycle of the Middle Kingdom (late XXII-early XX century BC). The cycle was preceded by an intercycle of about a century. In the recovery phase, the dominance of private property relations is noted. The cycle ended with revolts and an attempt to establish a statist monarchy (no transformation: A b A b).

5. The second cycle of the Middle Kingdom (early XX-early XVII centuries BC). The cycle is characterized by the coexistence of monarchy and private property relations. In the Contraction phase, the monarchy is strengthened and the private sector of the economy is reduced (or eliminated). The cycle is interrupted by a barbarian invasion-Northern Egypt was conquered by barbarians. The catastrophe led to the demise of the Statist monarchy and the privatization of temple farms (transformation A b B c b ).

6. The cycle of the New Kingdom (mid-16th - mid-12th centuries BC). The cycle was preceded by a roughly hundred-year intercycle (Hyksos rule). At the beginning of the cycle, there is a significant development of private property relations. In the Compression phase, the restoration of the statist monarchy takes place and the pharaohs subdue the temple farms. The cycle ends with uprisings and Libyan invasions. The catastrophe led to the destruction of the Statist monarchy and the conquest of the country by the Libyans (transformation A c b BA c c ).

7. The Sais cycle (mid-seventh to early fifth centuries BC). The cycle was preceded by a roughly four-hundred-year intercycle (the period of Libyan invasions and civil strife). At the beginning of the cycle, there is a significant development of private property relations. In the Contraction phase, the restoration of the statist monarchy takes place. The resisting oligarchy invites the Persian kings, and the Persians conquer the country. The conflict between the oligarchy and the Persian kings leads to war, to a demographic catastrophe, and to the victory of the Persian class monarchy. The Persians become the privileged military class of the new state. Please note the pa-

page 13

Figure 7. Consumption curve in Egypt from III BC to III BC.

parallelism with the second Neo-Babylonian cycle in Mesopotamia (transformation A c c BC c).

8. The Persian Cycle (480-330 BC). The restoration phase is dominated by the Persian estate monarchy. In the Contraction phase, Egyptian revolts lead to the expulsion of the Persians and the restoration of the Statist monarchy. The cycle was interrupted by a new Persian invasion, which was soon followed by the Greek-Macedonian conquest (transformation C c BC c).

9. The first Ptolemaic cycle (330-200 BC). The Macedonians replaced the Persians as a military class. In the contraction phase, Egyptian uprisings began again, leading to civil war and demographic catastrophe. The result of the crisis was the smoothing of class inequality and the restoration of the statist monarchy (transformation From c to B)

10. The Second Ptolemaic cycle (190-40s BC). During this cycle, the statist monarchy prevailed. In the Contraction phase, the Egyptian uprisings began again. There is a gradual privatization of military estates. The cycle ended with great famine, pestilence, and Roman conquest (transformation of the SUN c).

11. Roman cycle (30s BC-170s AD). At the beginning of the cycle, the estate monarchy dominated, but as a result of the privatization of military estates, a significant private sector of the economy appeared. During the contraction phase, private property relations develop, state land is gradually privatized, and large-scale land ownership appears. The cycle ends with a powerful peasant uprising, a terrible plague epidemic, and a demographic catastrophe. For the three cycles from the third century B.C. to the third century A.D., the data presented in the works of F. P. Blavatsky are: Heichelheim and A. Johnson 14, allow us to construct consumption curves (Figure 7, black triangles denote demographic catastrophes). The graph shows the number of liters of wheat that an unskilled worker could buy on a daily salary. The drop in consumption reflects an increase in demographic pressure over each of the three cycles. A sharp increase in consumption in the 180-150 - ies and in the 50-30-ies BC indicates a decline in the population, i.e. a demographic catastrophe. These catastrophes are also recorded by a combination of other signs (transformation from c A b).

12. The first Byzantine cycle (300-540s). The cycle was preceded by more than a century-long intercycle. During the intercycle, public land was privatized; thus, at the beginning of the cycle, a private-owned monarchy prevailed. During the Contraction phase, uprisings began and the restoration of the statist monarchy took place. The cycle ended with an epidemic catastrophe, the "great plague" (transformation A b B).

page 14

Figure 8. Consumption curve in Egypt from the 8th-11th centuries.

13. The second Byzantine cycle (550-630-ies). The cycle took place under the rule of the Statist monarchy and ended with the Arab conquest. The conquest led to the establishment of a class-based monarchy (transformation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine ).

14. Cycle of the Umayyad era (650-730's). Heavy taxes imposed by the Arabs accelerated a new Contraction, which was accompanied by peasant uprisings. A terrible famine and epidemic led to a demographic catastrophe (no transformation: C c C).

15. The first cycle of the Abbasid era (730-830-ies). A new Contraction led to a huge uprising and demographic catastrophe. The uprising was suppressed, but as a result of the collapse of the Caliphate, Egypt became an independent state (no transformation: SS).

16. The second cycle of the Abbasid era (830s-960s). The contraction led to a terrible famine, a plague epidemic, and a demographic catastrophe. During this crisis, Egypt was conquered by the Ismailis from Tunisia. The egalitarian ideology of the Ismailis was a popular response to the severity of tax exploitation; it was widespread in the Arab world, including Egypt. The Egyptians welcomed the arrival of Tunisian Ismailis, so I don't see this invasion as a conquest. The victory of the Ismailis meant the restoration of the Statist monarchy (transformation of the SV).

17. The first cycle of the Fatimid era (970-1060-ies). During this cycle, the statist monarchy prevailed. The new Contraction again led to famine, epidemics, and demographic catastrophe (no transformation: BB). For the last three cycles, the data contained in the mentioned works of E. Ashtor and O. G. Bolshakov allow us to construct consumption curves (Figure 8, the difference in figures compared to Figure 7 is explained by the fact that when plotting Figure 8, among others, prices of hungry years were also taken into account, and when plotting Figure 7 - only "normal prices").

18. The second cycle of the Fatimid era (1070-1140-ies). During this cycle, the statist monarchy still prevailed. In the middle of the 12th century, a great famine led to a new demographic catastrophe; at the time of the crisis, the country was conquered by the Turks. Turkic warriors received estates with peasants and became a privileged military estate of the new estate monarchy (transformation of the Armed Forces of Russia).

19. Cycle of the Mamluk era (1260-1340s). The cycle was preceded by more than a century of intercycle (the period of strife and wars with the Crusaders). Throughout the cycle, the estate monarchy prevailed. In the Compression phase, there is an increase in centralization-

page 15

new power. The cycle ends with an epidemic of the "Black Death" (no transformation: C c C).

III. CYCLES OF CHINESE HISTORY

1. The cycle of the Zhou Era (up to the end of the VI century BC). The cycle began with the creation of civilization and therefore lasted much longer than usual. In the XVII-XVI centuries BC, Northern China was conquered by the Shang tribes coming from the Great Steppe, and in the XI century BC - by the Zhou tribes. The conquerors became the privileged military class of Chinese society, their noble families took possession of vast lands with peasants, and the Zhou era is characterized by the existence of feudal estates and private land ownership with a weak central government. The Contraction that began in the sixth century BC led to revolts, civil wars, and several statist monarchies that divided the territory of Northern China (transformation A c B).

2. The Zhango Cycle (5th-late 3rd century BC). Although early Chinese monarchies sometimes made land redistribution, land remained privately owned and sold. The new Contraction that occurred in the third century BC brought with it the ruin of the peasants and the development of large-scale land ownership. The lack of arable land and heavy taxes of Qin Shi Huang led to revolts, demographic catastrophe, and the fall of the Qin Empire (BA b transformation ).

3. The cycle of the Elder Han era (beginning of the third century BC-beginning of the first century AD). The beginning of the cycle is characterized by the coexistence of a weak monarchy and private property relations. During the Contraction phase, the restoration of the statist monarchy took place, which tried to provide the peasants with land. However, further Contraction led to a new development of large-scale land ownership and the weakening of the monarchy, the ruin of the peasants, a general uprising and a demographic catastrophe. Ultimately, the result of the eco-social crisis was the resurgence of the statist monarchy (the transformation of A b B B B).

4. The cycle of the Younger Han era (40s-180s). The new statist monarchy provided the peasants with land, but did not restrict their property rights. During the Contraction phase, the development of private property relations led to the disintegration of the monarchy, the ruin of the peasants, and a new general uprising. In the end, the eco-social crisis revived the statist monarchy (transformation BA b B). For this cycle, there are data on the population size (Figure 9). The graph shows that the growth of the population in the region is growing.

Figure 9. Population of China in I-III centuries (million)

page 16

Figure 10. Population of China in the I-III centuries (million households)

the population mostly followed the logistic law. In the 180s and 190s, a demographic catastrophe occurred, then a period of wars began, and by the middle of the third century, according to official censuses, the population had decreased fivefold.

5. The cycle of the Jin Era (260-320s). During the cycle, the statist monarchy prevailed. State ownership of land and a system of giving peasants equal plots of land were introduced. The cycle was interrupted by the invasion of nomads, the Xianbi nomads became the privileged military estate of the new estate monarchy (transformation of the Armed Forces of China).

6. The Wei Cycle (400-540s). The cycle was preceded by an 80-year intercycle - a time of internecine wars and barbarian invasions. At the beginning of the cycle, the estate monarchy prevailed. During the Contraction phase, the restoration of the statist monarchy took place. However, the revolt of the military class led to a demographic catastrophe and a return to the class monarchy (transformation from c to BC).

7. The cycle of the Sui Era (540-620s). At the beginning of the cycle, the estate monarchy prevailed. In the Contraction phase, the great peasant war led to a demographic catastrophe and the restoration of the statist monarchy (transformation of the SV).

8. The first cycle of the Tang Epoch (630-750-ies). For this cycle, there are data on the population size (Figure 10). The graph shows that population growth mainly followed the logistic law. In the 755-762-ies. there was a demographic catastrophe that killed 3/4 of the population.

9. The second cycle of the Tang Era (760-880s). During this cycle, the statist monarchy prevailed. Although there was an allotment system, during the Contraction phase, small-scale farmers were forced to sell their allotments. The weakening of the central government led to military revolts, civil war, and demographic catastrophe. The crisis led to the abolition of the allotment system and the spread of private property relations (transformation of VA b ).

10. Song cycle (950-1120-ies). The cycle was preceded by approximately 70-year intercycle. During the Contraction phase, the monarchy implemented vigorous reforms to reduce demographic pressure. The development of new lands significantly expanded the ecological niche of China-a new period of internal colonization began and the population began to grow again. With the exhaustion of virgin land resources at the beginning of the XII century. the Compression started again. Thus, the Sung population growth curve consists of two" glued-together " logistic curves (Figure 11). This example shows the role of technical innovations that expand the ecological niche and take the logistics curve to a new level. The cycle was interrupted by the invasion of nomads who conquered Northern China (transformation A b With c for Northern China, in Southern China the Sung cycle continued).

page 17

Figure 11. Song Dynasty Chinese population (million households)

11. The cycle of the Jin Era in northern China (1140-1210s). At the beginning of the cycle, the estate monarchy prevailed. In the Contraction phase, the restoration of the statist monarchy took place. The cycle was interrupted by the Mongol invasion (the transformation of the Sung cycle for Northern China, while the Sung cycle continued in Southern China).

12. The cycle of the Yuan era (1260-1350-ies). The cycle was preceded by a half-century intercycle-the period of the Mongol conquest. In Northern China, a class-based monarchy prevailed throughout this cycle. In Southern China, the conquest was not accompanied by upheavals and a significant change in the social system; the monarchy co-existed here with developed private property relations, i.e., the Sung cycle continued. In the Contraction phase, the peasant war merged with the national liberation uprising, which led to the expulsion of the Mongols and the restoration of the statist monarchy (transformation from c B for Northern China and A b B for Southern China).

13. The Ming cycle (1360s-1640s). At the beginning of the cycle, the Statist monarchy prevailed. The Contraction phase is marked by the sale of land by ruined peasants and the formation of landowners ' land ownership. The cycle ends with a grandiose peasant uprising, but the landlords called on the help of the Manchus, who conquered China (transformation BA b A c c).

IV. CYCLES OF NORTH INDIAN HISTORY

In India, due to the weak documentation of the pre-Muslim period of history, only four demographic cycles can be distinguished.

1. The first cycle of the Delhi Sultanate era (1250s-1340s). The cycle began after the Muslim conquest of India. Muslim warriors became the privileged military class of the state founded by the conquerors, which copied the main features of Muslim class monarchies. At the beginning of the 14th century, under pressure from the Mongols, Sultan Ala ud-din carried out reforms aimed at copying the order of the Persian-Mongol (Hulaguid) statist monarchy. This example shows that military pressure can replace demographic pressure and that a statist monarchy can be replicated. In the 1340s, high taxes led to famine, epidemics, and a demographic catastrophe. The result of the catastrophe and revolts was the weakening of the monarchy (transformation From c B c A c B c means copying the statist monarchy).

2. The second cycle of the Delhi Sultanate (1350s-1390s). The weakening of the state opened the country to invaders. In 1399 Delhi was conquered by Timur's army.

page 18

Figure 12. Consumption curve in India during the Mughal era

Together with this army, Afghan tribes came to India, which divided the country into feudal principalities (transformation A c D c).

3. The Afghan cycle (1450-1550-ies). Internecine wars continued for more than half a century, then Northern India was united by the Lodi dynasty. In the middle of the 16th century, the statist monarchy was restored (transformation D c A c B c).

4. The cycle of the Mughal era (1570-1710s). During the cycle, the statist monarchy prevailed. In the 17th century, for the first time in the history of India, the problem of land shortage appeared, then Compression began, which was accompanied by the ruin of peasants, as well as revolts of peasants and national minorities. The peasants could not pay taxes and the financial crisis led to a weakening of the state; this weakening led to the separatism of the provinces and the inability to successfully resist external enemies. The invasion of Nadir Shah led to the fall of the empire; after a long period of internecine warfare, India was conquered by the British (transformation to c C c). In Fig. 12 shows the decline in consumption during the Mughal era. It should be noted that the causes of the crisis and the collapse of the mighty Mughal Empire are still a matter of debate .15 In our opinion, the consumption curve eloquently indicates that the demise of the Empire was caused by an eco-social crisis that ended the demographic cycle of the XVI-XVII centuries.

* * *

Now we can summarize the data on socio-political transformations over the course of cycles.

Transformation sequence for Sumer and Babylonia (cycle number is shown in parentheses):

Transformation sequence for Assyria and late Mesopotamia:

Sequence of transformations for Egypt (transformations starting from the fourth cycle are noted, since the first three cycles of Egyptian history are not sufficiently documented):

Transformation sequence for Northern China:

page 19

Transformation sequence for Northern India:

In total, there are 55 loops in these sequences. 27 cycles (i.e. half) ended in conquest; this means that conquest was the natural result of the crisis at the end of the cycle. But the main task is to study natural development, abstracting from external influences. For this purpose, you should remove the cycles that ended with conquests from the sequences, with the exception of complex cycles that have internal transformations. In complex loops, I replace the last letter indicating the result of the conquest with a dot.

In order to trace the direction of evolution in the cycles that began under the conditions of private property relations, we should leave only those cycles that begin with the letter A.

Thus, 16 cycles started in the context of private property relations. 13 of these cycles gave rise to the statist monarchy (one of the cycles twice). Three cycles did not lead to a change in the social system, but it should be noted that in two of them (Ib7 and II4) there were attempts to establish a statist monarchy, and the third cycle (III9) ended with a powerful peasant uprising. Be that as it may, the statist monarchy triumphed in the cycles immediately following these three cycles. Thus, it can be seen that the result of the classical demographic cycle is the establishment of a statist monarchy. At the same time, it should be noted that only in six of the 13 cycles, the statist monarchy was established directly as a result of peasant uprisings in the phase of the eco-social crisis (these cases are highlighted). In the remaining seven cases, the statist monarchy was established "from above" in the Compression phase, which, apparently, should be considered as a return of the monarchy to the already established traditions of state regulation in the context of the emerging crisis.

The struggle between private property society and the statist monarchy in the Middle East took place in ancient times and ended with the victory of the monarchy. In China, social revolutions occurred later, until the twentieth century. This is probably due to the fact that the history of China began two thousand years later and has a smaller number of cycles. In India, the shortage of land began to be felt only in the 17th century, and the problem of private ownership was not significant until then.

What was the fate of the statist monarchy? Let us choose from the sequences Ia.l-IV.1 cycles starting with the letter B (as well as complex cycles).

Thus, the transformation of the statist monarchy into a society with developed private property took place in China. Usually such transformations occur-

page 20

They were in a phase of Contraction and were the result of the gradual disintegration of the monarchy. Twice (cycles III6 and III8) the statist monarchy fell as a result of rebellions of the military class. It is characteristic that in all cases, with the exception of the Tang, the statist monarchy was restored either in the same cycle or in the next as a result of peasant uprisings. In the Middle East, the statist monarchy was stable; it was destroyed only by conquest. Let's see what the results of these conquests were. Choose from the sequences la-IV cycles that begin with the letter B and end with conquests (as well as complex cycles).

In five cases, the conquest transformed the statist monarchy into a society with developed private property. But these cases belong to ancient times, to the era before the advent of cavalry. After the advent of cavalry, specialization of estates became possible, and the conquerors became a specialized class of cavalry warriors. In twelve cases, the transformation of a statist monarchy into a class monarchy took place, and it was this transformation that determined the fate of the vast majority of statist monarchies.

What was the fate of the estate monarchy? Choose from the sequences la-IV cycles starting with the letter C.

In four cycles, the estate monarchy proved to be stable: the military estate managed to suppress peasant uprisings. In four cases, the disintegration of the estate monarchy led to the privatization of estates and the formation of a society with developed private property. Finally, in nine cycles, the estate monarchy was transformed into a statist monarchy. In five of the nine cases, this transformation was the result of peasant uprisings (these cases are highlighted), and in four cases it was the result of a return to the traditions of state regulation in the context of an incipient crisis. Thus, the main direction of the development of the estate monarchy was the transformation into a statist monarchy. Consequently, there was a return process: conquest transforms a statist monarchy into a class monarchy, while Contraction, reforms, and revolutions lead to a reverse transformation.

Thus, it can be seen that Compression generates a statist monarchy. In the early history of the Middle East, barbarian invasions destroyed this monarchy and returned society to the dominance of private property relations, but in subsequent cycles the statist monarchy was revived. In the Middle Ages, the barbarians became a privileged military class and transformed the statist monarchy into a class monarchy. But in subsequent cycles, Compression led to a reverse transformation.

In contrast to the Middle East, in China, in some cases, the statist monarchy was disintegrating, and private property relations were developing in the Contraction phase. But in this or the next cycle, the Contraction caused peasant uprisings and the restoration of the statist monarchy.

In India, demographic pressures began to determine the development of society only at the end of the Mughal cycle. Under the conditions of low demographic pressure, the social system was formed largely under the influence of external factors.

page 21

In conclusion, it should be emphasized that the theory of demographic cycles describes the development of pre-industrial society. The industrial and technological revolutions of the last two centuries have meant a dramatic expansion of the ecological niche; just as in the Song era, the logistics curve has begun to rise to a new level, and it is not yet clear when the constraints imposed by natural resources will once again affect. Moreover, the drop in the birth rate during the so-called demographic transition indicates significant changes in the mechanism of population growth. These changes call into question the very essence of the theory of demographic cycles. Emmanuel Le Roy Ladury, on the last page of his famous book 16, called Malthus a "prophet of the past": his theory explains the past, but fails to predict the future.

notes

Pearl R. 1 The Biology of Population Growth. N. Y., 1926.

Abel W. 2 Bevolkerungsgang und Landwirtschaft im ausgehenden Mittelalter im Lichte der Preis- und Lohnbewegung // Schmollers Jahrbucher. Bd. 58. 1934; idem. Agrarkrisen und Agrarkonjunktur in Mitteleuropa vom 13. bis zum 19. Jahrhundert. В., 1935; Postan M. Revision in Economic History: the Fifteenth Century // The Economic History Review. 1939. Vol. 9. N 2; idem. Same Economic Evidence of Declining Population in the Later Middle Ages // The Economic History Review. Ser. 2. 1950. Vol. 2. N 3; idem. Essays on Medieval Agriculture and General Problems of Medieval Economy. Cambridge, 1973.

Braudel F. 3 Civilisation materielle, economic et capitalisme XV e -XVIII e siecle. T. 1. P., 1966; idem. L'identite de la France. Les hommes et les choses. P., 1986; Cameron R.A. Concise Economic History of World. N. Y., Oxford, 1989; Le Roy Ladurie E. Les paysans de Languedoc. P., 1966. T. 1-2.

Braudel F. 4 Vremya mira. M., 1992. P. 533; Cameron R. A. Europe's Second Logistic. / / Comparative Studies in Society and History. 1970. Vol. 12. P. 457.

Nefedov S. A. 5 O zakonakh istorii i matematicheskikh modeli [On the laws of history and mathematical models]. Izvestiya Uralskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. 2000. N. 15. pp. 15-23; onk. Opyt modelirovaniya demograficheskogo tsikla [Experience in modeling the demographic cycle]. Information Bulletin of the Association "History and Computer". 2002. N 29. pp. 131-142.

Nefedov S. A. 6 Metod demograficheskikh tsiklov [6 Method of demographic cycles]. 2001. N 7. pp. 93-107.

Sovi A. 7 Obshchaya teoriya naseleniya [General theory of population], vol. 1, Moscow, 1977, p. 6.

Nefedov S. A. 8 On demographic cycles in the history of Ancient Egypt. Yekaterinburg, 1999. The manuscript was deposited in the INION RAS on 26.08.1999. N 54930; it is also known as. Demographic cycles in the history of medieval China. Yekaterinburg, 1999. The manuscript was deposited in the INION RAS on 26.08.1999. N 54932; it is also known as. On demographic cycles in the history of Babylonia. Yekaterinburg, 1999. The manuscript was deposited in the INION RAS on 26.08.1999. N 54930; it is also known as. On demographic cycles in the history of India. Yekaterinburg, 2001. The manuscript was deposited with INION RAS on 14.03.2001. N 556324. (All works are posted on the site http://hist1.narod.ru).

9 This term was proposed by L. S. Vasiliev: Vasiliev L. S. Problemy genezisa kitaiskogo gosudarstva [Problems of the genesis of the Chinese State]. Moscow, 1983, p. 56.

10 For a discussion of this problem, see: Yakobson V. A. Problemy izucheniya istorii gosudarstva i prava na Drevnem Vostoke [Problems of studying the history of the State and Law in the Ancient East]. 1984. N 2-3.

Dubberstein W. H. 11 Comparative Prices in Later Babilonia (625-400 V. S.) / / The American Journal of Semitic Languages and Literatures. 1939. Vol. 56.; Dandamaev M. A. Rabstvo v Babilonii. Moscow, 1974.

Ashtor E. 12 A Social and Economic History of the Near East in the Middle Ages. L., 1976; idem. Histoire des prix et des salaires dans l'Orient Medieval. P., 1969; Bolshakov O. G. The medieval city of the Middle East. M., 1984.

Bolshakov O. G. 13 Decree. op.

Heichelheim Fr. 14 Wirtschaftliche Schwankungen der Zeit von Alexander bis Augustus. Jena, 1930. S. 118-125; Johnson A. Ch. Roman Egypt to the Reign of Diocletian. Baltimore, 1936.

Habib I. 15 The Agrarian System of Mughal India (1556-1707). Bombey, 1963. P. 317-350.

Le Roy Ladurie E. 16 Op. cit. P. 370.

Permanent link to this publication: