On December 18-19, 2014, the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences hosted an international scientific conference "Current Problems of Asia and Africa in the context of worsening relations between the West and Russia", organized by the International Problems and Regional Security Sector. More than 20 reports of researchers, diplomats and university teachers from both Russia and foreign research centers and universities were heard and discussed.
Opening the conference, the head of the sector A. M. Khazanov suggested discussing three blocks of issues:
1. The confrontation between the West and Russia in the Middle East and Africa (the consequences of the "Arab Spring", the positions of the West and Russia on Syria, Iran, ISIS, rivalry in Africa).
2. The confrontation between the West and Russia in the Caucasus, Central and South Asia.
3. The impact of the worsening relations between the West and Russia on the situation in East and South-East Asia.
F. I. Yurlov (IB RAS) in his report "West and East: changes in the balance of power" noted that the model of globalization imposed by the West in the style of "American Style Capitalism" is losing its position in the civilizational, cultural, political and economic spheres. The emergence of organizations such as the SCO and BRICS in the international arena confirms this fact in the sphere of the global economy.
A.V. Kiva (IB RAS) in his report "Russia's policy in Asia and Africa in the context of worsening relations with the West" expressed the opinion that the expansion of trade and economic cooperation between Russia and the countries of the foreign East should begin with the revival of the Far East and Eastern Siberia. For Russia, its key BRICS and SCO partners, primarily China and India, are very important. According to the speaker, in the current conditions, India and China will continue to cooperate with Russia in the economic, scientific, technical and humanitarian spheres.
U. Z. Sharipov (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in his report "Modern state terrorism in the Near and Middle East" noted that currently the attention of the world community is focused only on one form of international terrorism - terrorist actions of individuals or groups. However, its other form is much more dangerous and large-scale state terrorism, which the United States resorts to.
In early 2002, the US government announced a new official foreign policy concept, according to which the United States gave itself the right to overthrow any foreign government whose policies, in Washington's opinion, threaten US security. As a result, the United States occupied Afghanistan and Iraq without a UN mandate, overthrew the legitimate heads of state of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya. A total of 40 million people were subjected to occupation. 19 major military bases equipped with the latest electronic equipment and weapons were deployed in the Middle East. In Saudi Arabia alone, the United States has built 100 major military installations, including three air bases. In the first decade of the twenty-first century, about 2 million people, mostly civilians, were killed and maimed in Iraq and Afghanistan. In Syria, where the United States is arming the opposition, about 300 thousand people were killed, 4 million refugees left the country.
I. I. Ivanova (IB RAS) made a presentation on "Turkey and the Syrian crisis". Four years have passed since the beginning of internal clashes in Syria, which led to severe consequences, characterized as the Syrian crisis. Ankara's excessive involvement in Syrian affairs, support for the opposition to the Assad regime, combined with claims to leadership in the region, have put Turkish diplomacy in a difficult position. The Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) has been disengaging since September 2013, and al-Qaeda-linked groups have been operating independently. The situation developed in such a way that clashes continued, on the one hand, between the FSA and the Assad army, and on the other - between Islamists and Syrian Kurds, as well as between the FSA and Islamists. A serious outcome of the Syrian crisis for Turkey was the problem of Syrian refugees, whose number at the end of 2014 amounted to 1.6 million people.
Looking at Turkish-American relations on the Syrian issue, Turkish analysts say that the US "abandoned Turkey halfway". The United States, which in 2011 insisted on
In the second half of 2014, the United States saw ISIL as a global problem, and Assad as a lower - level problem, while the United States considered Turkey to break off relations with Assad and provide support to the Syrian opposition. At the same time, the United States does not want the Syrian issue to "cast a shadow" on the nuclear negotiations with Iran. Thus, Turkey's involvement in the Syrian events had extremely negative consequences for the country.
B. V. Dolgov (IB RAS) in his report "Radical Islamism in the context of relations between the West and Russia" convincingly showed that in the Arab countries there is a radicalization of Sunni Islamic movements with an anti-Russian orientation. It can be used by the West against Russia. In the wake of the democratic movements of the "Arab Spring", Islamists came forward with their own Islamic project. The radicalization of Sunni Islamic movements resulted in the emergence of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Syria and Iraq. There are many Russians and natives of Central Asia and the North Caucasus in the ISIS group. B. V. Dolgov noted that there is a great interest in ISIL in some Russian Muslim circles.
Hribish Mounira (University of Carthage, Tunisia) in her report "The change of political regimes in Tunisia and its impact on relations with regional countries and the Russian Federation" noted that although the secular Nadaa Tunis party won the last Tunisian elections, radical Islamism has not lost its influence. Many religious propaganda organizations have sprung up in Tunisia. They send thousands of young Tunisians to Syria to fight against the Alawite Bashar al-Assad. The Tunisian Interior Ministry is trying to prevent this and puts people returning from Syria in prison.
Former Ambassador to Libya and Tunisia A. B. Podtserob in his report "Aggravation of relations between the West and Russia and events in the Arab East" noted that V. V. Putin's proposal to remove chemical weapons from Syria and destroy them, in fact, prevented the inevitable US strike on the Syrian troops of B. Assad.
Yu. S. Skubko (IAp RAS) in his report "South Africa's experience in countering sanctions during the apartheid period" noted that the racist regime of South Africa was subjected to comprehensive sanctions by the entire world community for 30 years, but nevertheless not only survived, but also significantly strengthened its economic power. A key role in countering the sanctions was played by the state's support for South American science, which solved many strategic and practical tasks-from the production of nuclear weapons, radioisotopes and synthetic liquid fuel to heart transplants, creating vaccines, etc. State support also contributed to the successful development of university science. It is the generous funding of scientific research, state support for science and education that has attracted scientists from many countries to South Africa. As a result, the South African economy has become immune to any sanctions.
R. A. Zezyulya (post-graduate student of MGI (U)In his report "Turkish-Israeli Relations", the Russian Foreign Ministry said that the importance of a military-political alliance with Israel for Turkey is largely due to the possibility of strengthening the Turkish army and special services in the fight against Kurdish organizations. Israel is also interested in rapprochement with Turkey in connection with the development of its military-industrial complex. At the same time, Israel is helping the Kurds to weaken their opponents in Syria and Iraq, which is annoying Ankara. When the Israeli security services facilitated the expulsion from Syria and detention of the leader of the Kurdish Workers 'Party A. Ocalan, Israeli Defense Minister I. Mordechai said that" Turkish-Israeli relations have reached the level of a strategic alliance." The speaker concluded that Turkey and Israel are linked by political, military and economic relations based on the coincidence of both tactical and strategic interests. This enabled Israel to break out of its long-standing regional isolation. Turkey has also benefited greatly from its cooperation with Israel. The alliance between Ankara and Tel Aviv helped ease the threat of the Iran-Syria alliance, which was seen in both countries as a source of regional tension. According to the speaker, the Turkish-Israeli partnership is a positive factor that can play a positive role in resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and overall stabilization in the region.
B. G. Koibayev (Vladikavkaz University) delivered a report on "The South Caucasus in the context of worsening relations between the West and Russia". In his opinion, the nature of challenges and threats to the security of the South Caucasus is related to Russia's domestic policy and national security, and for the United States, establishing control over this region is an important part of the strategy of dominance.
In 2013, Armenia refused to sign the Association Agreement with the EU, which contained a requirement to recognize the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan. This would mean Armenia's abandonment of Nagorno-Karabakh, severing economic ties with the Customs Union, unilaterally opening the Armenian market to European products, and the withdrawal of the Russian 102nd air base, which is the only real defense of Armenia against external aggression.
As for Georgia, despite the end of the Saakashvili era, Moscow was unable to normalize relations with Tbilisi, as the country remained pro-Western. Tbilisi recently signed an association agreement with the EU. The process of" desaakashvilization " has brought Georgian citizens together, but not a single real problem has been solved. The winning Georgian Dream party decided to use European recipes to reduce presidential power and transfer more powers to the Parliament and the Prime Minister. Georgia's claims for the return of Abkhazia and South Ossetia continue to be put forward by Georgia as the main condition for restoring diplomatic relations with Russia.
According to the speaker, the situation with Azerbaijan is also difficult today. This is the only post-Soviet country where the majority of citizens do not support the project of Eurasian integration. I. Aliyev's re-election did not change anything: Azerbaijan remains the most "anti-Eurasian" country in Transcaucasia. This is due, firstly, to the presence of large oil and gas reserves, the income from their exports does not depend on the restoration of economic ties with Russia, and, secondly, to old resentments against Russia, which supported Armenia in the Karabakh conflict. Azerbaijan refused to sign the Association Agreement with the EU and dropped out of the Eastern Partnership program. But its entry into the Customs Union is out of the question. Moreover, Russia had to abandon the Gabala radar station, which was very important for missile defense in the south.
B. G. Koibayev believes that Azerbaijan, following Georgia, will take the side of the West. The economy of modern Azerbaijan is almost completely integrated into the economy of the West, and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, which has been put into operation, is a guarantee of independence for Baku from possible pressure from Russia. Baku is already developing plans to preserve the" northern " route - Baku Novorossiysk for pumping oil to Europe. The official reason for this decision is the lack of oil to fill the BTC route. According to B. G. Koibayev, NATO plans to fully support the strengthening and modernization of Georgia's defense potential, and Russia intends not only to provide military assistance to Abkhazia, but also to directly increase its military grouping on its territory. Thus, the "second front" of the confrontation between Russia and the West is now opening, and it will be in the south Caucasus. It is here, in Georgia and Abkhazia, that the interests of Russia and the United States are clearly defined through political and diplomatic rhetoric, treaties and agreements.
L. N. Nursultanova (Eurasian National Bank) L. N. Gumilyov University, Astana) analyzed the issues of trade and economic relations of Kazakhstan with the countries of the South Pacific region: the main problems of cooperation, quantitative and qualitative characteristics of trade turnover and prospects for mutually beneficial partnership. Uranium has become the main area of cooperation between Kazakhstan and Japan. However, Kazakh uranium must be processed and enriched before being sent to Japan. The practice of such training is carried out in Russia. Therefore, cooperation in the nuclear energy sector of Central Asia is linked to the Japanese-Russian nuclear agreements. Relations between Kazakhstan and Indonesia are developing successfully. Kazakhstan imports refrigerators, animal and vegetable products, cellulose, etc. from Indonesia. Kazakhstan exports flat iron products and other products to Indonesia. The main items of Kazakh exports to Malaysia are ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy and chemical industry products, silver, platinum. Kazakhstan receives electrical equipment, electronics, and consumer goods from Malaysia.
Kazakhstan annually increases the pace of bilateral and multilateral trade and economic relations with various countries of the world, including the states of the South Pacific region.
In general, the conference brought a lot of new things to the understanding of a number of poorly understood problems related to the impact of the aggravation of relations between the West and Russia on the situation in various regions of Asia and Africa. The discussion of the reports showed that it is necessary to expand the circle of partners who are ready for equal interaction based on a balance of interests, including in trade and the economy. Russia needs to have allies based not only on common interests, but also on common threats. In the current geopolitical situation in the world, the countries of the East can open up long-term prospects and advantages for Russia.
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