The economic and financial crisis, which became truly global in the autumn of 2008, has already had and will undoubtedly continue to have a negative impact on the international movement of foreign direct investment (FDI). However, the impact of the crisis on different countries, groups of industries, and types of investment is mixed. In 2009, against the background of negative economic dynamics in most countries, positive growth rates continued in China, India, and other major Eastern countries. A number of factors can contribute to the growth of FDI inflows to Eastern countries and increase the role of Eastern countries as capital exporters. These include maintaining positive growth rates and a quick recovery from the crisis in Eastern countries, the ability to move production facilities to them in order to reduce costs, reduce the cost of assets, and increase the role of investors from Eastern countries - Asian TNCs and national welfare funds.

Keywords: financial and economic crisis, foreign direct investment, Eastern countries.

On September 15, 2008, the economic crisis became truly global. The investment bank Lehman Brothers was declared bankrupt. Within two weeks of that date, the crisis spread like wildfire around the world. Already at the beginning of October 2008, the stock price on the world's stock markets fell sharply.

The beginning and harbinger of the global financial crisis was the crisis in the US mortgage market in the summer of 2007. Along with the debt on mortgage loans of insolvent borrowers - individuals, there was also excessive debt of companies and investment funds. In the last two decades, the world has seen a large number of mergers and acquisitions of companies, both at the national and transnational levels. Mergers and acquisitions, rather than investments in new projects, account for a significant portion of global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. Moreover, their inflow to the world as a whole increased precisely in those years when the process of mergers and acquisitions intensified (for example, in 2000, 2007). One transnational mega-deal (mega-deals are usually referred to as transactions worth more than $ 1 billion) - and the import of capital into or out of the country in statistics sharply increases. increased.

A significant role in mergers and acquisitions of companies was played not only by TNCs, but also by institutional investors from Western countries: private investment funds, pension funds, mutual investment funds (similar to which our mutual funds were created). During mergers and acquisitions of companies, the so-called leverage (LBO, leveraged buy out) was widely used. In 2002, LBO financed 2% of mergers and acquisitions in the world, and in 2006, on the eve of the crisis, it was 20% [Pigasse and Finchelstein, 2009, p. 29-30].

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LBO was widely used to buy companies in the West by Indian companies. This is stated in the documents of the Reserve Bank of India. That is why, apparently, the relatively small amount of FDI outflow from the country did not reflect the costs of Indian TNCs for mergers and acquisitions of foreign companies. By buying up companies in the West, Indian companies or companies with Indian capital participated in multinational mega-deals, which received a very large response. For example, Mittal Steel, registered in the Netherlands but owned by Indian billionaire Lakshmi Mittal, who lives in England, has acquired Luxembourg-based Arcelor. One of the most recent such deals is the acquisition of Jaguar in the UK by the Indian firm Tata Motor.

Another reason or group of reasons. The general lack of regulation in the financial sector played a significant role in generating the crisis. It is the unprecedented development of the global financial market, including the derivatives market - swaps, futures, options-that has become an important feature of financial globalization. Finkelstein writes: "Financial instruments so sophisticated were invented that buyers did not know what they were buying, and sellers did not know what they were selling." To determine the possible evolution of markets and justify decisions on buying and selling derivatives, mathematical models were used. M. Pigass (by the way, the vice-president of a large and long-standing bank "Lazar Frer") condemns the practice of using financial derivatives and the underlying idea that the movement of prices for derivatives is arbitrary and corresponds to the movement, which is called stochastic. In other words, the models used in finance had nothing to do with finance. In France, small depositors were offered such derivatives by banks, and these small investors did not understand what they were buying, and only later, when it was too late, they learned that these derivatives were based on securitization (issuing securities-bonds based on them) of assets such as mortgages in the United States, and were characterized by high interest rates. risk management (Pigasse and Finchelstein, 2009, p. 31-32).

I. Ward, a lecturer at the Fletcher School of Business and Law at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, writes about the use of mathematical models to justify "soap bubbles" in the financial sector in Monde Diplomatique. He quotes John Galbraith, who wrote in his essay "A Brief History of Financial Euphoria" that financial innovation is always based on the same economic principle - real assets serve as the basis for issuing securities (stocks, bonds, options), the value of which can reach absurd values, without any connection with the value of real assets, on which real assets are based. which they are based on. I. Ward himself notes that financial analysts accurately assessed risks using computer programs. However, one of the basic principles of computer science states: "garbage in - garbage out". A computer can process any information entered into it at high speed, but the quality of its conclusions will always be only a reflection of the quality of the data that was entered into it [Le krach du libéralisme..., 2008-2009, N 102, p. 16, 18].

Speaking about financial euphoria, about the lack of regulation of finances in the context of globalization, the authors of "Monde diplomatique" very figuratively compare our planet, participating in financial globalization, with a casino. Laurent Cordonnier writes: "Over the past 30 years, our economies (those of developed countries)have they began to resemble resort towns, where the welfare of road workers and other municipal employees directly depends on the prosperity of the local casino." I. Ward notes that volatility has reached such an extent that the boundary between speculation and risk coverage has become blurred. "Finance defied the laws of market equilibrium. From birth to death, the lives of economic agents (and this includes households) were involved in a maelstrom of financial speculation. And suddenly the casino-si-

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the system of financial speculation, the global financial market, began to collapse... " [Le krach du libéralisme..., p. 8].

All of these, however, are specific, private reasons. Many experts believe that the general cause of the crisis is a growth model based on excessive debt, excessive liberalization of the economy, including the financial sector. Analyzing the origins of the crisis, M. Pigasse, Vice-President of the Lazar Frere Bank, and Jean Jaures, President of the Jean Jaures Foundation. Finkelstein writes that the global crisis can be described as a debt crisis - a crisis of household mortgage debt, debt of companies and funds that have widely used cheap loans, including for mergers and acquisitions. But the main blame for the crisis, according to M. Pigasse and J. Finkelstein, can be laid on the Anglo-Saxon model of economic liberalism as a whole [Pigasse and Finchelstein, 2009, p. 13-14, 21, 101; Le krach du liberalisme, p. 80, 82]. The very rhetoric of statements about the "collapse of liberalism" is quite consistent with the concept of neoclassical synthesis and its implementation in practice: in times of crisis, the role of the state in the economy increases dramatically, Keynesian recipes are adopted. If the economic situation is favorable, the state may again refuse to actively intervene in the economy.

One of the latest examples of a worsening debt crisis. On November 25, 2009, the Dubai World Investment Fund announced a unilateral moratorium on the payment of its debt. The estimated amount of debt is approximately $ 60 billion. The main lenders are British banks and financial companies, including HSBC Bank (now with the participation of Chinese capital), Barclays Bank. Dubai World is a national welfare fund, but a specific one. Ordinary national welfare funds - state investment funds-accumulate a portion of the state's foreign exchange earnings from exports, and they use their own funds rather than borrowed funds. But the Emirate of Dubai is not a major oil exporter. His sovereign wealth fund, Dubai World, had $ 2 billion of its own resources. dol. and it mainly operated at the expense of loans from multinational banks. Not rich in oil, Dubai has made a bet on the development of tourism, on turning the emirate into a regional financial center. Projects with the participation of Dubai World were carried out both abroad and within the emirate, in particular in the construction sector - bulk islands were created (for example, in the form of palm trees), super-luxury 7-star hotels were built on them. Now you have to pay your bills [http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2009/11/28/la-crise-de-dubai]. Of course, Dubai turned to the oil-rich emirate of Abu Dhabi for help. In the end, Abu Dhabi provided the help. However, only the very news of the threat of Dubai's default caused panic on the stock exchanges, a kind of"domino effect".

In order to get out of the crisis in both the United States and Western Europe, the state has made multibillion-dollar investments in bailed-out banks and financial companies. This is quite consistent with the concept of neoclassical synthesis. "In clear weather", in a favorable economic environment, in the recovery phase, the state puts economic liberalization at the forefront, without interfering in the economy, and is guided by neoclassical and neoliberal theories. "In bad weather", in a crisis, Keynes ' prescriptions about the need for state intervention in the economy, large-scale public investment are applied. The state practically bought out shares of companies that were on the verge of bankruptcy, as was the case with the American mortgage guarantee companies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the insurance company American International Group, the automobile companies General Motors and Chrysler.

Although other countries, primarily developing and transition countries, borrowers of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, have been subject to the following pre-conditions:-

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Table 1

GDP dynamics in 2009-Q1 2010

A country

Growth rate, Q3 2009

Growth rate, Q4 2009

Growth rate, Q1 2010

Growth rate in 2009

USA

-2.5

+0.1

+2.5

-2.5

Japan

-5.1

-1.0

+4.6

-5.3

Euro area

-4.1

-2.2

+0.5

-3.9

France

-2.3

-0.3

+ 1.2

-2.2

Germany

-4.8

-2.4

+0.6

-4.9

Great Britain

-5.1

-3.1

-0.2

-4.7

Spain

-4.0

-3.1

+0.3

-3.6

Russia

-8.9

-3.8

+4.5

-8.0

China

+8.9

+10.7

+11.9

+8.3

Turkey

-3.3

+6.0

-

-6.0

Hong Kong, China

-2.4

+2.6

+8.2

-3.2

India

+7.9

+6.0

-

+6.5

Indonesia

+4.2

+5.4

+5.7

+4.6

Malaysia

-1.2

+4.5

+10.1

-2.4

Vietnam

+5.8

+6.9

+5.8

+5.3

Singapore

+0.6

+3.5

+15.5

-2.1

Republic of Korea

+0.9

+6.0

+7.8

+0.5

Taiwan

-1.3

+9.2

+ 13.3

-3.5

Thailand

-2.8

+5.8

+ 12.0

-3.2

Philippines

+0.8

+1.8

-

+0.8

Pakistan

+2.0

-

+3.7

Brazil

-1.2

+4.3

-

-0.3

Mexico

-6.2

-2.3

+4.3

-6.9

Venezuela

-4.5

-5.8

-

-2.9

Egypt

+4.9

-

-

+4.7

Saudi Arabia

-

+0.2

-

+0.2

SOUTH AFRICA

-2.1

-1.4

+1.6

-1.8

Источники: The Economist, http.//www.economist.com/markets/indicators/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15127387; http://.www.economist.com/markets/indicators/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14587505; http.//www.economist.com/markets/indicators/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15457236; id=16220660.

The Washington Consensus demands to limit the role of the state in the economy, the public sector, and public spending, including on social needs, during the crisis, the governments of developed countries themselves made huge injections into the banking sector and industry in order to prevent the collapse of the economy.

The global financial and economic crisis has had and will undoubtedly continue to have a significant impact on international capital flows, particularly in the form of direct investment.

Studies of economic processes using mathematical models and multi-factor analysis show that there is a direct link between export and export of goods.

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direct investment in the country and GDP growth rates (see for more details: [Tsvetkova, 2004, p. 81]). Global economic growth has slowed markedly. Since 2008, the crisis has become not only a global financial crisis, but also an economic one.

On February 4, 2010, experts of the English magazine "Economist" gave an estimate of the GDP dynamics in 2009. According to these estimates, for the whole of 2009, the US gross domestic product decreased by 2.5% compared to 2008. This is not such a large-scale drop, which was mentioned in alarmist forecasts and statements. The decline in GDP in the United States was smaller than in almost all other developed countries. And it is absolutely incomparable with the Great Depression of 1929, when it fell by 30% (although not in one year). However, threatening forecasts and statements are made in order for the state to take adequate measures to combat the crisis.

In 2009, GDP declined in almost all developed countries. The crisis has also spread to developing countries. In Asia, countries with export-oriented economies, relatively small domestic market capacity and little potential for expansion, even with high incomes, were most affected by the crisis, which is associated with a small population. In general, in 2009, compared to 2008, according to preliminary estimates, GDP decreased in Singapore by 2.1%, Taiwan-by 3.5%, Thailand - by 3.2%, and Malaysia - by 2.4%. In a number of Eastern countries, GDP remained almost at the level of the previous year: in Saudi Arabia, it increased by 0.2% in 2009, in the Philippines-by 0.8%, and in South Korea - by 0.5%.

So, in developed, transition countries, and first-tier NIS, there was a decline in GDP. However, one group of emerging market countries maintained relatively high GDP growth rates in 2009, despite a decline in demand for their export products in developed countries. These are Asian giants and large Eastern countries. China and other countries have focused their strategies on expanding domestic demand. Public investment programs were adopted to stimulate economic growth and the growth of the domestic market. At the same time, it is impossible to say that the Asian giants were completely left out of the crisis. The decline in demand for their export products in developed countries could not but affect their export-oriented industries. In the eastern regions of the People's Republic of China (they were the locomotives of growth), many enterprises with foreign capital were closed. A large number of workers lost their jobs. Overall, China's exports declined by 17% in 2009, but the decline was even greater in other countries. The value-to-GDP ratio of China's exports fell from 36% in 2007 to 24% in 2009. Exports from China to the United States in the first 10 months of 2009 it declined by 15%, but exports to the United States from other countries - by 33%. China's share in exports to the United States reached 19%. According to preliminary data, China's share in world exports in 2009 was about 10%, and it came out on top in the world, ahead of Germany [Fear of Dragon // The Economist, January 7, 2010-http./ / www. economist. com/displayStory. cfm?story_id=15235078].

In the context of the global economic crisis, GDP in the Asian giants and large Eastern countries did not decline, but continued to increase. In 2009 GDP grew, according to preliminary data, in China-by 8.3%, in India-by 6.5, in Indonesia - by 4.6, in Vietnam - by 5.3, in Egypt - by 4.7%. Against the background of negative economic dynamics in developed countries, many developing and transition countries can clearly expect an increase in the share of Eastern countries in world GDP.

The Economist magazine in April-May 2010 provided data on the economic growth rates of individual countries for the 4th quarter of 2009 and the 1st quarter of 2010. Already in Q4, there was a clear exit from the recession, and the increase in growth rates in Asian countries was very noticeable. Positive dynamics compared to the fourth quarter of the previous year was observed in all Asian countries included in the table above, including those whose GDP change rates for 2009 were generally negative - in Singapore, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, and the United States.

page 92
second-tier countries-Malaysia, Thailand. The economic growth rate increased even more in the first 1 quarter of 2010. So, in Singapore in the 1st quarter of 2010 compared to the corresponding quarter of 2009. GDP increased by 15.5%.

For Asian giants and major Asian countries, GDP grew throughout the crisis, and continued to grow in 2010. In the first quarter of 2010, China's GDP increased by 11.8%, and Vietnam's-by 5.8%. High growth rates in major Asian countries and the recovery of other Asian countries from the crisis make them attractive to foreign investors. However, the impact of the crisis on different countries, groups of industries, and types of investment is mixed.

In the context of the crisis, since 2008, the volume of global direct investment exports has been decreasing. All three components of direct investment were affected by the crisis. Investment in equity-the first component-decreased, and much more significantly than during the crisis of computer stocks (crisis dot.com) 2000-2001 The greatest negative impact of the crisis was on this component of FDI [UNCTAD. Global Investment Trends..., 2010, p. 1]. Reinvestment of branch profits - the second component of FDI-declined due to a general decline in company profitability (on average, by almost 30% in 2008, although these average figures hide different situations and different profitability in different industries). The third component of FDI, intra - firm loans, also declined. The difficult financial situation of parent companies in developed countries has led them to demand that their foreign branches repay debts on intra-company loans.

If we compare the response to the crisis of various capital flows to developing countries - these include, along with FDI, portfolio investment, other private capital (bank loans, export credits, etc.), and government development assistance-then FDI in 2008 - the first quarter of 2009 proved to be the most resilient to the impact of the global financial crisis. the crisis. According to the structure, in 2007, more than 1/2 of the total capital inflows to developing countries accounted for FDI, 7% - for portfolio investments, more than 1/4 - for other private capital, and 13% - for state development assistance. For comparison, in 1979, state aid for resource inflows to developing countries accounted for about 1/3, private capital accounted for 2/3, of which 3/10 were private direct investment and 1/2 were portfolio investment. Other private and portfolio investment inflows to developing countries declined sharply in 2008, much more significantly than FDI inflows [World Investment Report 2009, p. 5; OECD. Development Cooperation, 1980, p. 163]. Greater stability and inertia in comparison with portfolio and other investments are generally characteristic of FDI.

After a period of growth in direct investment in 2003 and 2007, global direct investment inflows declined from a record high of $ 1,979 billion reached in 2007 to $ 1,697 billion. in 2008, i.e. by 14.3%. The decline in FDI in 2008 mainly affected developed countries, where direct investment inflows decreased by 29% compared to 2007, including 42.3% in Western and Central European countries. In the US, FDI inflows increased by 16.6%. Direct investment inflows to Japan also increased slightly.

Developing and transition countries experienced the impact of the crisis later than developed countries: for some, it occurred due to a drop in prices for their exported raw materials (oil, metals - since the end of summer 2008), for others - due to a reduction in demand for their export manufactured goods in developed countries. In 2008, compared to 2007, direct investment inflows to developing countries increased by 17%, from $ 529 billion to $ 621 billion, and to transition countries-by 25.3%, from $ 91 billion to $ 114 billion, with Russia accounting for $ 70 billion of the latter amount. The share of developing and transition countries in direct investment inflows was unprecedented in 2008: 43%

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Table 2

Foreign direct investment inflows to regions and countries in 2007-2009 (USD billion)

Countries

FDI inflows (USD billion)

2007

2008

2009

Change compared to the previous year,%, +/-

2008 to wed 2007

2009 to wed 2008

All countries of the world

1979

1697

1040

-14.2

-38.7

Developed countries

1359

962

566

-29.2

-41.2

Europe

900

518

374

-42.4

-27.9

Belgium

111

60

35

-45.9

-41.2

France

158

101

65

-25.3

-35.5

Germany

56

25

35

-55.4

40.7

Netherlands

118

-4

38

-102

-

Great Britain

183

97

7

-47.0

-92.7

USA

271

316

136

+16.6

-57.0

Japan

23

24

11

+4.3

-53.4

Developing countries

529

621

406

+17.4

-34.7

Africa

69

88

56

+27.5

-36.2

Egypt

-

9.5

8.2

-

-13.9

SOUTH AFRICA

-

9.0

6.8

-

-24.6

Asia and Oceania

333

389

284

+16.9

-32.1

Middle East

78

90

51

+15.4

-43.1

Saudi Arabia

24

39

-

+62.5

Turkey

22

18

8

-18.2

-56.3

United Arab Emirates

14

13.7

-

-2.1

-

Lebanon

2.7

3.8

-

+40.7

-

Oman

3.1

2.9

-

-6.5

-

Bahrain

1.78

1.79

-

+0.6

-

YUVVA

254

298

203

+17.3

-31.8

China

84

92

90

+

-2.6

Hong Kong (China)

54

63

36

+16.7

-42.8

Republic of Korea

2.6

7.8

-

+200

-

Taiwan

7.8

5.4

-

-30.8

-

Bangladesh

0.7

1.1

-

+57.1

-

India

25

42

34

+68.0

-19.0

Pakistan

5.6

5.4

-

-0.4

-

Sri Lanka

0.6

0.8

-

+33.3

-

Cambodia

0.9

0.8

-

-11.1

-

Indonesia

6.9

7.9

5.1

+14.5

-36.0

Malaysia

8.4

8.1

2.7

-3.6

-66.6

Philippines

2.9

1.5

-

-48.3

-

Singapore

32

23

18

-28.1

-19.5

Thailand

11.2

10.1

4.8

-9.8

-54.3

Vietnam

6.7

8.1

-

+20.9

-

South-Eastern Europe and CIS countries

91

114

69

+25,3

-39.4

Russia

55

70

41

+27,3

-41.1

* 2009-according to preliminary data.

Sources: UNCTAD. Global Investment Trends Monitor..., 2010, p. 2; World Investment Report 2009, p. 247 - 250.

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Table 3

Foreign direct investment inflows: regional share, billion rubles dol., %

Regions

2007

Share in 2007

2008

Share in 2008

2009

. Share in 2009

All countries of the world

1979

100

1697

100

1040

100

Developed countries

1359

68.7

962

56.7

566

54.4

Developing countries

529

26.7

621

36.6

406

39.0

Africa

69

3.5

88

5.2

56

5.4

Middle East

78

3.9

90

5.3

51

4.9

YUVVA

254

12.8

298

17.6

203

19.5

South-Eastern Europe and CIS countries

91

4.6

114

6.7

69

6.6

Calculated from: World Investment Report 2009, p. 247-250; UNCTAD. Global Investment Trends..., 2010, p. 2.

(including the former - 37% and the latter-7%; compared to 27% and 5%, i.e. a total of 32% in 2007).

While all developing countries saw a 17% increase in inflows in 2008, Africa saw a 27% increase, and Asia saw a 17% increase. The share of Asian countries in total FDI inflows to developing countries was 62.5%, including the Middle East-14.5%, East Asia-30.1%, South Asia-8.2%, South-East Asia-9.7%. FDI inflows to Asian giants and large Eastern countries increased in 2008 compared to 2007: to China (by 30%), to India (by 66%), to Indonesia (by 14%), and to Vietnam (by 21%). Out of the NIS, positive FDI trends were observed only in the Republic of Korea and Hong Kong (PRC). The decline in investment inflows to relatively small countries-exporters of industrial products and oil-exporting countries-was more noticeable in 2008. Almost the same countries registered negative growth rates in 2009. In 2008, compared to 2007, FDI inflows to Taiwan decreased by 31%, to Singapore - by 28%, and to Thailand - by 10%. FDI inflows from the Middle East increased to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, while the UAE declined.

In 2009, the forecast of a decrease in FDI to all countries of the world was justified. Globally, the inflow of these investments decreased by 38.7% in 2008-2009, from $ 1,697 billion. up to $ 1,040 billion. The decline in FDI flows has affected almost all countries and regions, including those that experienced an increase in FDI flows in 2008. FDI inflows to developing countries decreased by 34.6% in 2009 compared to 2008, to Africa-by 36.2%, to the Middle East-by 43.2%, and to South, South-East and East Asia - by 31.8%. In practice, we can only talk about which countries experienced a decline in FDI inflows It was below the global average (-38.7%). In China, FDI inflows decreased by 2.6%, in Egypt-by 13.9%, in India - by 19%, in Singapore - by 19.5%.

Compared to 2008, the share of developing countries in FDI inflows increased even more in 2009 , from 36.6% to 39%, while the share of transition countries remained almost unchanged at 6.6%. In total, 45.6% of global direct investment flows went to developing and transition countries.

* * *

Direct investment flows are divided into two types: one is investment in mergers and acquisitions, i.e. the purchase of existing companies and assets by foreign investors, and the other is investment in new projects. It was the growth of investment in mergers and acquisitions, rather than in new projects, that was the main driver of FDI growth in 2003-2007. In 2008, the total number of multinational mergers and acquisitions decreased.

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Table 4

Cross-border mergers and acquisitions in 2008-2009 by region and country (sales of companies) (USD billion)

Countries

Cross-border mergers and acquisitions (USD billion)

2008

2009

Change in 2009 compared to 2008,

All countries of the world

706

240

-66.0

Developed countries

581

195

-66.4

Europe

273

127

-56.4

USA

227

40

-82.5

Japan

9.3

-5.9

-163.5

Developing countries

105

38

-64.0

Africa

21

6

-73.1

Egypt

16

1.8

-90.2

Asia

68

37

-46.5

Western Asia

16.3

2.3

-85.9

Turkey

13

1.8

-87.7

YUVVA

53

34

-35.1

China

5.4

11.3

108.5

Hong Kong (China)

8.7

2.1

-75.3

India

10.4

6.2

-40.5

Indonesia

2.1

1.3

-34.9

Malaysia

2.8

0.2

-93.0

Singapore

14.2

9.7

-32.1

South-Eastern Europe and CIS countries

20.3

6.8

-66.6

Russia

13.5

5.0

-62.6

Source: UNCTAD. Global Investment Trends..., 2010, p. 2.

acquisitions, and their total volume has fallen. The share price decline alone in 2008 was equivalent to a $ 81 billion decrease in M & A transactions, or 18% of the total decrease. Total volume of transnational mega-deals (worth more than $ 1 billion) mergers and acquisitions in 2007 reached a record level of $ 1,197 billion, with 319 such mega-deals (3.0% of the total number of multinational mergers and acquisitions). In 2008, 251 mega-deals were concluded (2.6% of the total number of mergers and acquisitions), and the total value of these multinational transactions, according to more recent data, was 706 billion rubles. This figure is 41% lower than in the previous year. Some mega-deals were canceled, while others were postponed indefinitely. Privatization projects of state-owned companies in Eastern countries that could have attracted foreign capital were suspended [World Investment Report 2009, p. 10-12].

While overall FDI inflows to all countries of the world decreased by 38.7% in 2009 compared to 2008, the total cost of buying up companies abroad (mergers and acquisitions) decreased by 66%. Data on cross-border mergers and acquisitions for 2009 show a 35.1% decrease in the volume of purchases of companies by foreign investors in the countries of South, South-East and East Asia (SEEA) compared to 2008, from $ 53 billion to $ 34 billion. In the first half of 2009, almost half of the cross-border transactions involving the purchase of companies in the South-Eastern European region ($7.4 billion, 46.4%) accounted for the purchase of companies by investors from other countries

page 96
Of the East. In the first half of 2009, the Southeast Asian countries themselves spent $ 8.6 billion on buying companies abroad, including 75.6% of this amount on buying companies in Asia.

In the Middle East, foreign investors acquired $ 2.3 billion worth of companies in 2009, compared with $ 16.3 billion worth of mergers and acquisitions in 2008. (the amount decreased by 85.9%). In the Gulf countries, a number of large-scale projects involving foreign capital were postponed. In the first half of 2009, the Middle East countries themselves spent $ 8.7 billion on acquiring companies abroad, including 80.5% in developed countries [World Investment Report 2009, p. 50, 60; Table 4].

The decline in growth rates in developed countries negatively affected the export of direct investment from them, which in 2008 compared to 2007 decreased from $ 1,809. 5 billion. to $ 1,506. 5 billion, up 17%. The export of foreign direct investment from Europe fell particularly sharply, from $ 1,270. 5 billion to $ 1,270. 5 billion. to $ 944.5 billion - by 26%. FDI outflows from the United States, the world's leading investor, fell from $ 378 billion to $ 312 billion, a 17% decline. In contrast, FDI outflows from Japan increased from US $ 74 billion. up to $ 128 billion, an increase of 42%. Developing and transition countries accounted for 19% of FDI outflows in 2008 (16% and 3%). The share of Eastern countries in global FDI exports was 12% [World Investment Report 2009, p. 247-250]. The crisis resulted in an increase in the share of Eastern countries in global direct investment exports.

The situation in 2008-2009 differs from the Asian crisis of 1997, which negatively affected FDI inflows to Asia for two to three years. The 2008 crisis occurred in developed countries, and the decline in FDI inflows occurred in 2008 primarily in developed countries. But developed countries are also the main sources of investment - so the crisis will certainly affect the whole world as far as FDI is concerned. A little less of this reduction in their export from developed countries will affect Asian countries, because there is a significant intraregional capital overflow (in some years-up to 2/3 of investment). But even among Asian countries that invest in neighboring countries in the region, Taiwan, Singapore, and South Korea suffered from the crisis. In the Asian giants-China and India-continued economic growth. It is expected that India, and especially China, will play an even greater role in the export of capital from Asia.

If we compare the global financial crisis of 2008 with the crisis of the computer technology market of 2001, then in 2001 the largest reduction in FDI inflows was in the telecommunications sector (by 53%), business services, and the electronic industry. In 2008, FDI inflows to the financial sector sharply decreased (by 48%) and to the metallurgical industry [World Investment Report 2009, p. 13]. The automotive industry, construction materials production, aviation industry, transport services (air transport, logistics) were also the most affected by the impact of the 2008-2009 crisis. Later, the impact of the crisis was felt by raw materials and non-financial services.

TNCs in industries where demand for products is highly elastic in relation to consumer income, such as the automotive industry, have found themselves in a particularly difficult position. The growth rate of housing construction has decreased , hence the decline in demand for TNK products in such industries as the metallurgical industry. ArcelorMittal, a steel company formed as a result of Mittal Steel's purchase of Luxembourg-based Arcelor, saw its sales decline by 49% in Q1 2009, and announced that it was postponing a $ 20 billion steel plant construction project in India. dol. [Financial Times, 23 October 2008].

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The situation of TNCs in industries where demand for products is characterized by low elasticity in relation to the incomes of customers was more favorable, such as the food and tobacco industry, the pharmaceutical industry (which for many years was the leader in profitability of TNCs), retail trade, telecommunications, utilities, and the oil refining industry (the production of gasoline, which differs, at least by short-term period, low price and income elasticity of demand). In other words, even after losing their jobs, people continue to buy food, medicines, talk on their mobile phones and have to pay for utilities. They postpone the purchase of new housing, a new car, and expensive electrical appliances until better times.

How do major TNCs react to the crisis, what measures do they take, and how can this affect the movement of direct investment between countries? Companies strive to reduce their costs as much as possible. Investment programs are being reduced, and projects are being postponed. Companies get rid of non-strategic, non-core assets, sell their foreign branches. They can be sold to local companies. In China, for example, local banks have bought back shares of foreign financial institutions. In early 2009, in China, Bank of Scotland sold its entire stake in the Bank of China for $ 2.3 billion, and Union de Banque Suisse sold its stake in the Bank of China for $ 3.4 billion for $ 0.9 billion. Bank of America sold its $ 7.3 billion stake in China Construction Bank to Chinese investors, while Germany's Allianz and American Express sold $ 1.9 billion in shares. in the Commercial and Industrial Bank of China [World Investment Report 2009, p. 25].

Changes in the international movement of direct investment in the medium term are associated with a multidirectional impact of a number of factors, many of which cause a decrease in the export of investments. First, the reduction in corporate profits reduces the ability of companies to finance foreign projects. In the context of the crisis, the risks associated with investing capital abroad have significantly increased. As a result, a significant number of new projects and business mergers and acquisitions were canceled or postponed, as evidenced by data on FDI inflows and the volume of cross-border mergers and acquisitions in 2009. Secondly, in the context of the crisis and the difficult financial situation of some of the largest TNBS, the use of credit resources is sharply reduced. Reliance on credit resources in the context of a downturn in the economy, in the absence of expected high profits, becomes the reason for the aggravation of the debt problem. Some companies that used leverage to take over other companies found themselves in a very difficult position.

However, there are a number of factors that have a positive impact on FDI inflows, especially in the East.

The first factor. As shown above, the leading countries of the East maintained high economic growth rates in 2009, especially against the backdrop of a global decline in production, and the decline in oil prices for Asian giants, which are net importers of oil, is not a loss, but a gain. In these countries, foreign investment in projects focused on the domestic market is increasing.

The second factor of investment growth during the crisis is a decrease in the value of assets, which allows investors to buy up these assets at a favorable price and participate in industrial restructuring. For TNCs from developing countries that have accumulated significant funds in foreign currency (in particular, corporations from China), this opens up the possibility of increasing investment abroad. Restructuring or optimization of production (these terms cover very painful phenomena - the dismissal of employees, the closure of inefficient enterprises) in parallel with the closure of high-cost industries in developed countries can be accompanied by:-

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This can be achieved by expanding or creating new production facilities in countries with lower costs - cheaper labor. The crisis opens up some prospects for the growth of cost-cutting investments - in export-oriented manufacturing industries, which are mostly labor-intensive. Now such investments are possible not only in the manufacturing industry, but also in the service sector. But there may be other solutions. In developed countries, public opinion - and it plays a significant role, because the results of elections depend on it - opposes the relocation of production to countries with "lower social standards", considering it as one of the reasons for the growth of unemployment and stagnation of wages Jacques Sapir, author of the book "Russian Collapse", calls such a relocation of production"social dumping" and sees a way out of the crisis in the adoption of protectionist measures [Le Monde diplomatique, mars 2009]. If TNCs need to sacrifice some of their labor to reduce costs, they can close branches in other countries under explicit or veiled pressure from the Governments and public opinion of the countries of origin, while maintaining branches in the country of origin.

The third factor. Investment growth can also be promoted by the fact that new (or relatively new) actors are operating in this area, whose role is increasing. These are TNCs from emerging markets and national welfare funds from countries with rich deposits of raw materials or large foreign exchange earnings from exports of finished products. The growth of FDI is also supported by the accumulation of huge foreign exchange reserves by some emerging market countries, especially in China. Since much of China's exports go to the United States, and since China holds a significant portion of its foreign exchange reserves and savings in dollars or in American securities, it is not interested in the collapse of the United States and a sharp collapse of the dollar. But he can gradually withdraw his savings from dollar assets. Instead of investing their savings in US government bonds, China and other Eastern countries can use their accumulated funds-through national welfare funds or through state-owned corporations-to acquire assets in other countries, including in order to ensure reliable access to sources of raw materials, primarily energy.

The fourth factor. There are a whole group of industries that are growing rapidly even in the midst of a crisis and where there are favorable prospects for FDI. Opportunities for investment, including foreign investment, are expanding in new industries, such as the development of alternative energy sources or production that protects the environment. The UNCTAD report "Assessing the impact of the financial and economic crisis on international FDI flows" provides a detailed list of industries that in all countries have significant prospects for the growth of investment in them, including foreign ones. Among these industries and sectors, the full list of which is very large, are biotechnologies, electronics for cars and aircraft, production of combined hybrid engines (using various types of fuel), commercial support services - customer service centers, business outsourcing, R & D, technical, engineering and financial services; medical services. services (remote diagnostics), in the field of information technologies-microelectronics, software development; nanotechnologies; alternative energy; water purification, waste recycling; biofuel production, robotics [Assessing the impact..., 2009, p. 6].

Economic theory identifies different types of foreign direct investment: 1) domestic market-oriented, 2) efficiency-oriented, and 3) resource-oriented. These three types of investments can:

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respond differently to the crisis. So far, the most negative impact of the crisis has been on domestic-oriented investments in developed countries. In contrast, such investments are increasing in developing and transition countries. Cost-cutting investments may increase in developing countries - the crisis is forcing many companies to cut costs, and this can be done by closing businesses in developed countries and moving production to emerging markets. Resource-oriented investments may decline due to falling commodity prices. During the period of rising prices for raw materials, such investments are booming: TNCs start new projects, expand financing for geological exploration. During the period of falling prices for raw materials, investment is reduced. After the global economy resumes its growth, commodity prices may rise again( this happened by the autumn of 2009), and at the same time, FDI in raw materials may increase again.

The mentioned UNCTAD report contains three scenarios for predicting the evolution of the international direct investment movement:

1) An optimistic scenario. Rapid resumption of FDI growth since the end of 2009 Background: the end of the recession in the second half of 2009. Rapid increase in investor confidence due to factors such as effective government policies, lack of protectionism, a new wave of mergers and acquisitions due to industrial restructuring, and the availability of financial resources for some companies and financial institutions.

2) Basic scenario. The growth of FDI flows will only start in 2011. Key assumptions: The global economic downturn will last longer than in the first scenario, at least until the end of the first half of 2010. The total amount of M & A transactions will not be as high due to the low share price. The trend towards internationalization of companies ' activities will continue to operate in the medium term.

3) A pessimistic scenario. The growth of outward FDI will only start in 2012. Reasons: the recession will last longer, and its results will be worse than expected. This will contribute to the strengthening of protectionist tendencies, which will have a negative impact on the process of globalization. Due to the cumulative effect of negative factors, companies will be very wary of making investments, especially abroad.

The main conclusion of the report is that it is necessary to curb the tendency to increase protectionism [Assessing the impact..., 2009, p. 9]. In general, according to UNCTAD experts, FDI inflows to all countries of the world will decrease to $ 1 trillion in 2009-2010 [UNCTAD Investment Brief, No. 1, 2009]. For 2009, the forecast was confirmed with accuracy.

The global financial and economic crisis is not only affecting the international direct investment movement. One of its results may be a change in the balance of power of the leading actors in the global economy. The UNCTAD documents note: "This crisis may reflect changes in the balance of economic power between developed countries, whose economies have been severely affected by the crisis, including a reduction in FDI inflows, and emerging market countries, which have accumulated large foreign exchange reserves and whose position in the global economic and financial system is currently strengthening" [UNCTAD Policy Brief..., 2008].

In their book "The World after an Unprecedented Crisis", M. Pigasse and J. Finkelstein write about the increasing role of emerging market countries at the macroeconomic level (in world GDP) and at the microeconomic level (increasing the role of TNCs and national welfare funds from developing countries and "their conquest of the North"). In the "New World" - in the post - crisis configuration of the global economy-the role of emerging market countries is increasing. In a chapter of your book,

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entitled "BRICOT's Decisive Breakthrough", by M. Pigasse and J. Finkelstein uses the term "BRICO "(BRIC and Others, BRIC and other countries, mainly included in the Group-20, instead of the term" BRIC") [Pigasse and Finchelstein, 2009, p. 104-105].

The classic of global studies, I. Wallerstein, gave an interview to the newspaper "Monde" under the apocalyptic title "Capitalism is nearing its end"in connection with the world crisis. I. Wallerstein generally connects the crisis of modern capitalism with the emergence of new leaders in the world economy. He states: "The successful catch-up economic development of East Asia, India, and Latin America presents a challenge for the" world economy "created by the West, which cannot find an answer to it and no longer controls the accumulation process." I. Wallerstein believes that the crisis is the lowest point of a long wave according to N. Kondratiev; he believes that the crisis is the lowest point of the long wave. He considers the Kondratieff wave to be phase A (upward phase) in 1945-1975, while phase B (downward phase) continues from 1976 to the present, and its lowest point occurred during the 2008-2009 crisis. At the same time, 2008 is the lowest point of long-term "historical" cycles according to F. Braudel. I. Wallerstein compares the crisis of 2008 with the crisis of feudalism in Western Europe in the XV-XVI centuries. He considers it a manifestation of the systemic crisis of capitalism. "Capitalism is a system that has made it possible to produce, in an extraordinary and remarkable way, the maximum amount of goods and wealth. But it also caused a lot of losses - for the environment, for society." I. Wallerstein states: "In 30-40 years, a new system will emerge. I believe that it is equally possible to establish a system of exploitation that is even more rigid than capitalism, and to establish a model that is more egalitarian, based on the redistribution of goods" [Le capitalisme touche à sa fin..., 2008].

Is the global financial and economic crisis a coincidence of the lowest points of different cycles? Braudel, according to K. Marx? Some economic works express different points of view on the chronology of the last long wave according to N. Kondratiev: the last wave began in the 1980s and is associated with the development of information and communication technologies, and 2008 in this case cannot be its lowest point. However, the chronology of such waves can only be accurately determined in retrospect. Does the crisis mean the beginning of a transition to a new system? Many authors (for example, the French sociologist E. Todd) already wrote about the loss of leadership in the global economy in the United States before the crisis [Todd, 2004]. Alarmist predictions about the collapse of the United States as the center of the world economy and the complete collapse of the dollar have not yet been fulfilled. The decline in US production in 2009 was not as dramatic as predicted. Effective government intervention prevented the collapse of the financial and economic system.

However, another thing is indisputable: among the leading countries-actors in the global economy, only one group of countries has maintained positive and sufficiently high economic growth rates. These are Asian giants-China, India - and major Eastern countries-Indonesia, Vietnam. Undoubtedly, by the end of 2009, their share in world GDP will increase. As a result of the crisis, the role of Eastern countries as host countries for foreign direct investment and as capital exporters has increased. The activity of TNCs and investment funds from Eastern countries has increased, as well as their purchase of companies abroad. One of the possible outcomes of the "first crisis of the era of globalization" may be a change in the very nature of globalization, an increase in the role of countries with emerging markets in the world economy, primarily the countries of the East.

list of literature

Todd E. Posle imperii: Pax Americana - nachalo kontsa [After the Empire: The Beginning of the End]. Moscow: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 2004.

Tsvetkova N. N. Foreign Direct investment in Asia and Russia. Opyt sravnitel'nogo analiza [Experience of comparative analysis]. Moscow: IV RAS, 2004.

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Assessing the impact of the current financial and economic crisis on global FDI flows. UNCTAD. January 2009. http://www.unctad.org/en/docs/webdiaeia20091_en.pdf.

Fear of Dragon // The Economist. January 7, 2010 // http.//www.economist.com/displayStory.cfm?story_id=15235078

Le capitalisme touche à sa fin. Un entretien avec Immanuel Wallerstein // Le Monde, dossiers & documents. Decembre 2008.

Le krach du libéralisme, Manière de voir // Le Monde diplomatique. Décembre 2008 - Janvier 2009. N 102.

Le Monde. P. (http://www.lemonde.fr/economie/article/2009/11/28/la-crise-de-dubai-).

OECD. Development Co-operation: 1980 Review. P.: OECD, 1980.

Pigasse M., Finchelstein G. Le monde après: Une crise sans précedent. P.: Plon, 2009.

Sapir J. Le retour du protectionnisme et la fureur de ses ennemis // Le Monde diplomatique. Mars 2009 (http.// www.monde-diplomatique.fr/2009/03/SAPIR/16882).

The Economist. L.

The Financial Times. L.

UNCTAD. Global Investment Trends Monitor. Global and Regional FDI Trends in 2009. Geneva, 19 January 2010.

UNCTAD Investment Brief. 2009. N 1.

UNCTAD Policy Brief, "Rebuilding financial multilateralism". October 2008. N 4.

World Investment Report 2009. UN., N.Y.-Gen., 2009

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