The article analyzes the current state and prospects for the development of the oil sector of the Saudi economy. In particular, the dynamics and technologies of raw material extraction, plans for the development of new fields, and features of transportation and export of oil and petroleum products are discussed in detail. The author comes to the conclusion that the kingdom will continue to skillfully implement various state programs and projects in the hydrocarbon sector, designed to strengthen its leading positions among countries with impressive reserves of "black gold".

Keywords: Saudi Arabia, oil, oil production, oil refining.

The oil sector is the leading sector of the economy of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), providing approximately 80% of the budget revenue, 45% of GDP, and 90% of the state's export earnings [CIA World Factbook, 2012]. More than half a century ago, Saudi Arabia, which was at the origin of the creation of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which has solid deposits of "black gold"1, is the main supplier of this energy carrier in the world.

The state's energy policy, which has internal and external components, is based on two factors: the leading role of the oil sector in the country's economy and the ability to influence the world market due to the presence of unique reserves and a significant amount of oil exports. The internal component is aimed at using oil revenues to diversify the national economy and improve the standard of living of the population. External - to maintain the importance of oil in the global energy balance, to create demand for the energy carrier while maintaining a high share of Saudi Arabia in world supplies.

Regulation of the domestic market of oil and petroleum products in the KSA is carried out by the Ministry of Oil and Mineral Resources. An important function in energy coordination-

1 The world leader in oil reserves was Saudi Arabia, but, according to OPEC, Venezuela was ahead of the CoE in 2010. Thus, proved reserves in this country increased by 40.4% compared to 2009 and amounted to 296.5 billion barrels. This is more than 30 billion barrels higher than the KSA indicator.

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The country's oil policy, including its international aspects, is assigned to the Supreme Petroleum Council, 2 which, along with the King and members of the royal family, includes heads of a number of ministries and industry representatives.

A key role in the country's oil and gas industry is played by the national company "Saudi ARAMCO" 3 - one of the world's leading oil corporations in terms of production and reserves of raw materials 4.

DYNAMICS AND PROSPECTS OF OIL PRODUCTION GROWTH

As of 2011, proven oil reserves in the KSA reached 262.6 billion barrels [CIA World Factbook, 2012], which is more than 19% of the global figure [Central Dispatching Department of the Fuel and Energy Complex..., 2011]. In 2010, the state produced 407 million tons of oil, of which 393.8 million tons were provided by Saudi ARAMCO [Central Dispatching Department of the Fuel and Energy Complex..., 2011]. According to the company's experts, in the coming years, it is possible to increase the annual production capacity to 750 million tons.

According to Russian data, Saudi Arabia ranks second in terms of oil production in the world (10 million barrels per day). However, European analysts consider this reporting somewhat incorrect. According to their calculations, the KSA produces 10.8 million barrels per day, while Russia produces 9.8 million barrels, not 10.27 million [Berenius, 2011]. As evidence of Riyadh's leadership, it is reported that in 2011-2012 it exceeded the permissible quota several times.

At the end of 2011, OPEC officially increased its quota for black gold production for the first time in several years, which immediately had a positive impact on official Saudi statistics. For example, in February 2012, daily production in the state amounted to about 11 million barrels (1.5 million tons), which was a record in recent months [Sunna-Press.com, 29.02.2012].

According to the plans of the Saudi government, taking into account the decline in production at existing fields, the total capacity of the country should exceed 670 million tons per year and at least 75-100 million tons of capacity will become redundant.

For the sake of justice, it should be noted that in recent years, the dynamics of changes in the volume of oil production in the KSA did not have a progressive trend, as some experts mistakenly believe, but rather had a jumpy character (Table 1).
Table 1

Dynamics of Saudi oil production, 2005-2010, mln m

Year

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2010 to 2009, %

Oil export

466.2

459.0

439.4

459.7

407.9

407.0

-0.2

Source: [Joint Oil Data Initiative].

The fact is that the state does not prioritize the annual rapid increase in production without taking into account external factors. The degree of operation of Saudi facilities largely depends on the current situation in the markets for raw materials. The KSA often uses reserve capacities to offset the uncomfortable difference between supply and demand that has arisen as a result of a particular negative event.

2 The Supreme Oil Council carries out strategic planning for the development of the industry and approves the terms of signing contracts.

3 For more information about the company's history and activities, see [Isaev, 2012(2), pp. 32-36].

4 Saudi ARAMCO controls 98% of the country's oil and gas resources, dominating the production, transportation, processing and sales of hydrocarbons.

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Thus, the global financial crisis of 2008 forced Riyadh to intensify the export of raw materials in order to increase budget revenues. Largely thanks to Saudi efforts, the status quo in the European oil market was restored after the temporary cessation of hydrocarbon exports from Libya in 2011.

At the beginning of 2012 Saudi Arabia has repeatedly expressed its readiness to fill the shortage of hydrocarbons on the world market, which may arise as a result of EU and US sanctions imposed on the Iranian oil industry. However, later Saudi Oil Minister A. Naimi said that the kingdom's oil production capacity is not enough to compensate for the losses caused as a result of the embargo on purchases of Iranian oil (more than 3 million barrels per day). [http://news.iran.ru/ news/79862/]. Nevertheless, he noted a significant increase in daily production of raw materials compared to 2011.

Thus, the Minister's words in no way refute the possibility of activating production operations (within reasonable limits) on the part of the state in case of urgent need, and also expose the inconsistency and unfounded statements of some researchers that Riyadh is bluffing, since in practice it is not able to quickly increase the level of hydrocarbon production. It should be taken into account that the volume of oil production is affected by the growing profitability of foreign capital investments in the kingdom, which in some cases makes it possible to limit the production and export of liquid fuel painlessly for the country's economic development [Isaev, 2012(1), p. 30].

In the near and medium term, given the extremely tense situation in the Middle East and North Africa region, on the one hand, it is quite possible to expect an increase in oil production in the KSA, on the other - on the contrary, its slowdown. The first scenario is likely if the supply of raw materials from neighboring countries decreases as a result of various sabotages at oil transportation infrastructure facilities. The second scenario is possible if any export routes used by Saudi Arabia are blocked.

EXPLORATION OF NEW DEPOSITS

The undoubted advantage of KSA is the fact that it produces oil of various qualities: from heavy to ultralight {Table 2).

Table 2

Characteristics of the main grades of KSA oil

Oil grade

Density

Sulfur content, %

g / cc

API5

Arab Super Light (ASL)

0.7770

50.6°API

0.04

Arab Extra Light (AEL)

0.8348

38.0° API

1.16

Arabian Light (AL)

0.8550

34.0°API

1.78

Arab Medium (AM)

0.8665

31.8° API

2.45

Arab Heavy (AH)

0.8833

28.7°API

2.79

Source: Central Dispatching Department of the Fuel and Energy Complex.

As can be seen from Table 2, Saudi Arabia's oil, with the exception of AEL and ASL grades, has a high sulfur content. Almost 2/3 of the raw materials come from light and ultralight oil. Light grades are produced mainly in continental deposits, while heavier grades are produced on the shelf.

5 Classification of the American Petroleum Institute (American Petroleum Intitutc).

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About 100 oil (mostly) and gas fields have been discovered on the territory of the country, and the 8 largest ones account for more than half of all national reserves. Most of the deposits are concentrated in the east of the state and on the shelf of the Persian Gulf. The main production volume is provided by the Gavar (up to 250 million tons per year), Safaniya (up to 64 million tons per year), Khurais (up to 60 million tons per year), Shuaiba (up to 7 million tons per year) sites [EA - Saudi Arabia, January 2011, p. 2].

Gavar is the world's largest continental oil field, where up to 40% of the projected reserves of Saudi "black gold" are concentrated [Isaev, 2012 (3), p. 29]. This area produces AL grade oil. AEL and ASL grades are produced in the Abkaik and Havta continental fields. On the shelf - grades AM (Zuluf and Marjan sections) and AN (the main field is Safaniya, which contains 10% of the country's oil reserves) [Fuel and energy complex... 2011; Isaev, 2012(3), p. 29].

In 2009, oil production started at the new Niayim site (5 million tons per year). Production capacities were expanded at the Shuaiba 6 field with reserves of 7 billion barrels of ultra-light oil with a sulfur content of only 0.7% [Isaev, 2012(3), p. 29]. In 2010, production was increased at the Khurais fields (59.8 million tons per year of AL grade oil and 4 million tons per year of condensate) and Kharasania (24.9 million tons of oil per year) [Central Dispatching Department..., 2011]. Preparations continued for commercial operation of the Manifesta field on the Persian Gulf shelf (5th in the world in terms of oil reserves; the planned annual production capacity is 24.9 million tons and 44.8 million tons by 2013 and 2014, respectively) [Central Dispatch Management..., 2011].

The project of comprehensive modernization of production capacities at the Safaniya field is currently under development.

By 2015, the KSA management intends to invest about $ 95 billion in new projects in oil production: $ 70 billion to expand production and $ 25 billion to expand production. for the creation of processing facilities [Filonik, 2010]. This is largely done in order to find new alternatives to Ghawar, which has produced 65% of Saudi liquid hydrocarbons over 60 years of operation.

In addition to the main promising areas (Kharasania, Shuaiba, Niayim, Khurais, Manifesta, Marjan, Zuluf), which have already been developed, there are about 70 more fields in reserve. According to experts ' forecasts, their development will allow increasing production to 18.2 million barrels per day by 2030 (Filonik, 2010). The Government plans to conduct additional drilling at existing sites in order to compensate for the natural depletion of mature deposits.

It should be assumed that the lack of demand for heavy grade oil may well prompt Saudi ARAMCO to reconsider its production strategy. In this regard, it remains unclear whether the company will put new fields into operation in view of market volatility, or whether it will prefer to suspend production at old fields in parallel with expanding operations at new sites for maintenance or deeper rehabilitation.

OIL PRODUCTION TECHNOLOGIES

Traditionally, the extraction of Saudi oil is carried out using a fountain type of production. Without going into the technological details, I will note that fountain fittings are installed on the surface of the well - special equipment for controlling the well, which allows you to regulate production - to reduce or completely stop it.

6 The field was discovered in 1965, but its development was complicated by its remoteness from oil transportation routes and collection points [Isaev, 2012 (3), p. 29].

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Saudi Arabia's oil industry is represented by such large foreign companies as the American Exxon Mobil, the Anglo-Dutch Royal Dutch Shell, and the French Schlumberger. With the help of these leading international corporations, Saudi oil companies are also developing advanced technologies for extracting "black gold"along with established methods. For example, Schlumberger and Saudi ARAMCO engineers jointly developed and tested the StageFRAC system, which increased well productivity by two times [http://www.slb.ru/userfiles/file/Case%20 Studies / 08-ST-115_StageFRAC_Saudi_cs. pdf].

In addition, horizontal drilling technology was successfully applied on the territory of the KSA (Khurais field [Successful Application...]). Horizontal wells produce flow rates 2-10 times higher than vertical wells. In addition, the probability of water and gas cones breaking through is reduced, which contributes to higher oil recovery. The economic efficiency of using horizontal drilling in Saudi Arabia is achieved by increasing the productivity of wells by 150-400%, reducing the total number of wells by 30%, reducing the cost of drilling, laying field equipment by 20-25%, processing field water and gas by 50%, increasing recoverable geological reserves by 5-10%, delaying the installation of gas lift systems and compressor equipment [History of development..., 2013].

By mastering the latest technologies of hydrocarbon production, Riyadh ensures the development of the oil industry, but there are still some difficulties that the KSA may face in the future.

First of all, even such a powerful company as Saudi ARAMCO finds it difficult to continuously raise the bar of productivity without a constant flow of large financial resources. In this regard, significant investments are needed to carry out additional exploration work in the fields where the Saudis are going to introduce new production capacities. Secondly, in some cases, the development of sites requires modern drilling technologies that were not previously used in Saudi Arabia, which makes it necessary to widely attract foreign service companies that already have rich experience in this field. Third, today there is a shortage of spare capacity for drilling equipment, as a result of which rental rates are increasing, which will also hit the pocket of Saudi oil companies.

In order for Saudi Arabia to remain among the leading states in terms of the state and impact of the oil sector, it needs to continue a clear and pragmatic energy policy and diplomacy, and not make provocative statements or flaunt the volume of hydrocarbon reserves in every possible way, causing envy of some states. As a result of reasonable and subtle actions of the government and large-scale entrepreneurship, the country's oil sector will receive not only natural dividends, but also guarantees of future development.

OIL TRANSPORTATION

There are a number of ways to transport oil: through main pipelines, using tankers, and by rail. All of them are used in the KSA, but to varying degrees. Oil delivery by water is cheaper and more economical than other methods. In addition, due to the geographical features of the country, it is used very widely.

Saudi ARAMCO's transportation division, Vela International Marine, has one of the largest fleets of supertankers in the world. It includes, in particular, vessels with a displacement of 160 thousand tons and above (VLCC type) and several others.

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vessels with a displacement of over 400 thousand tons (ULCC type)7. They transport a significant part of the export oil. In 2010, the National Transport Company of Saudi Arabia (NTCSA)8 implemented a project for the construction of several food tankers. As a result, the total number of tankers that make up the current fleet of the state exceeds 30 vessels.

The main export oil loading terminals are Ras Tannura, Juaimah (Persian Gulf) and Yanbu (Red Sea). The Ras Tannur terminal is the largest in the world, with up to 75% of Saudi Arabia's liquid hydrocarbon exports carried out through it, and its capacity reaches 300 million tons per year. The Yanbu terminal has an annual capacity of 225 million tons of oil and 50 million tons of petroleum products. The Juim terminal has a capacity of 180 million tons per year [Development history...].

In recent years, about 90% of Saudi fuel supplies are carried out by supertankers through the Strait of Hormuz, which provides 93% of all hydrocarbon exports from the Persian Gulf countries every day [Through the eye of a needle, 2008] and up to 40% of global oil exports by sea [Yurchenko, 2008].

If this transport corridor is blocked, of course, alternative sales routes are possible, for example, through international pipelines. However, their throughput capacity is too small to realize the volume of raw materials that the Saudis have recently extracted. Despite the constant underutilization of existing pipelines, the country does not discount the study of new projects in the field of oil transportation, which is dictated by the desire to reduce the future costs of delivering hydrocarbons to consumers and the search for safer routes by diversifying them. By relying on various innovations and experiments, KSA shows flexibility and the ability to keep up with the times.

The current volume of pipeline supplies of Saudi "black gold", although significantly inferior to sea transportation, is still not catastrophically small, as some researchers claim. Moreover, it tends to grow. The length of main oil pipelines in the country is 4.2 thousand km, product pipelines -1.1 thousand km, about 1.2 thousand km of pipelines are used for transportation of a wide fraction of light hydrocarbons (NGL 9) [http://www.oilgz.ru...]. The main oil pipelines connect the field areas with oil loading terminals on the Red Sea and in the Persian Gulf.

The largest infrastructure object of the KSA oil industry is the East - West pipeline with a length of 1.2 thousand km and a capacity of 250 million tons per year, connecting Jubail with Yanbu al-Bahr [http://www.oilgz.ru...]. The current pipeline load does not exceed 50%, as the route from Yanbu through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait to Asia is unprofitable due to the fact that the delivery time is extended by 5 days. In parallel, there is a pipeline for the transportation of NGL with a capacity of 14.5 million tons per year from Abkai to petrochemical plants in Yanbu. Up to 12.5 million tons of oil per year is delivered via an oil pipeline laid along the bottom of the Persian Gulf from Saudi Arabia to Bahrain.

7 The VLCC tanker is designed to carry up to 2 million barrels, and the ULCC tanker is designed to carry up to 3 million barrels of oil.

8 NTKSA is a state-owned company, although 28% of its shares are owned by the Saudi government's state investment fund, and the remaining 72% are freely traded on the stock exchange.

9 NGLs - a broad fraction of light hydrocarbons - basic raw materials for the production of tires, liquefied gas and other products of the petrochemical industry. It is obtained from associated petroleum gas, which differs from natural gas in the presence of so - called fat-hydrocarbon fractions extracted at special gas processing plants. The component composition of NGLS may vary depending on the resource base of production. A typical composition is as follows: ethane (from 2 to 5%), liquefied gas (60-85%), psntan+ fractions (the rest).

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Extensive international oil pipelines have been built on the territory of Saudi Arabia, but are not being used for oil transportation, in particular the Trans-Arab pipeline (with a capacity of 25 million tons per year; it connected the fields of the Persian Gulf with the Lebanese port of Sidon) and the Iraqi oil pipeline through Saudi territory (with a capacity of 80 million tons per year; it connected the oil fields of Iraq and the port of Midjiz on the Red Sea).

In the future, it is planned to build several more transport arteries. First, the 115-km-long New Arabia pipeline with a capacity of up to 22.5 million tons per year between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain. Secondly, the supply pipelines from the oil refinery (refinery) in Jubail to the export sea terminal with a length of about 300 km. Third, the Ras-Tannura-Qatif-Dhahran-Riyadh oil pipelines are about 600 km long. Fourth, the Ras-Tannura-Dhahran and Dhahran-Riyadh product pipelines with a total length of 506 km. Fifth, the Tabuk-Tuba pipeline (Red Sea coast) is about 250 km long.

In the summer of 2012, the Russian oilfield services Group Rimera started supplying mainline equipment to Saudi ARAMCO, which is upgrading pipelines in the KSA as part of a large-scale state program. The cost of the order, calculated for 2012-2013, according to experts, will exceed 2.5 million euros [http://www.metaprom.ru/news/16525.html].

Oil transportation by rail has the lowest efficiency, since this type of transport is poorly developed in the KSA. The main railway line intended for cargo transportation passes through the Persian Gulf port of Dammam, the cities of Abqaiq, Khufuf, Harj and Riyadh (length-about 556 thousand km).

Today, the issue of bringing hydrocarbons to consumers has become perhaps the main one for Saudi Arabia, which is heavily dependent on tanker transportation, does not use enough main arteries, and actually does not have the appropriate infrastructure for transporting raw materials by rail.

It seems that in the future the state will take the necessary steps to develop these problematic areas, but we should not immediately expect positive results, since the unstable regional situation can suddenly bring to the fore completely different political and economic problems that will require prompt solutions and considerable financial costs from the Middle Eastern states, including the KSA.

EXPORT OF OIL AND PETROLEUM PRODUCTS

Speaking about the specifics of Saudi hydrocarbon exports, I will immediately note one trend: in the 2000s, the share of the Asia-Pacific region (APR) in its geographical structure steadily increases and the share of Western Europe decreases, which is due to a more favorable situation on the Asian market and convenient logistics.

The dynamics of raw material supplies abroad is as undulating as the level of annual production (Table 1). 3), which is quite logical.

Table 3

Saudi oil exports, 2005-2010, mln m

Year

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2010 to 2009, %

Oil export

372.5

361.9

342.9

356.3

294.9

288.8

-2.1

Source: [Joint Oil Data Initiative].

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As can be seen from Table 3, in 2010 the volume of oil exports amounted to 288.8 million tons, a decrease of 2.1% compared to the previous year. The main sales markets are East and South Asia, Australia and Oceania (65%), and North America (15.8%). Europe accounts for 9.9% [Central Dispatching Office..., 2011]. Small volumes are delivered to countries in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. According to the results of 2010, Japan (55.1 million tons per year), the USA (53.8 million tons), China (45.3 million tons) and the Republic of Korea (38.9 million tons) were among the largest importers of KSA oil [Central Dispatching Department..., 2011].

In February 2012, the country sharply increased daily exports of raw materials by almost 20%: from 7.5 million barrels (end of January) to 9 million barrels [http://quote.rbc.ru...]. This was probably caused by several factors at once: the increase in the OPEC quota; the desire to bring down the rapid jump in prices caused by the events around Iran and Syria; and by increasing the strategic reserves of energy carriers on the part of importers, since the latter provide an additional reserve in case of the outbreak of hostilities in the region.

Despite the fact that the efforts of the KSA managed to temporarily extinguish the price surge and reduce the excitement on the part of consumers, stock traders question the ability of Riyadh to bring the cost of a barrel to $ 100 (this is the price that the KSA considers optimal). In their opinion, if the current trends continue, the given trend definitely leads to $ 130-150 in the near future.

Saudi Arabia is also a major net exporter of petroleum products (Table 4).

Table 4

Export of Saudi oil products, 2005-2010, mln m

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

201010

2010 to 2009*, %

69.3

63.9

56.9

52.9

50.4

45.0

89.3

Source: [OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2009].

From the table. 4 it can be seen that the volume of exports in 2010 is estimated at 45 million tons. The main sales areas are the Asia - Pacific region (57.7%), the Middle East (19.5%), Africa (10.9%) and Europe (8.5%) [Central Dispatching Department..., 2011].

Crude oil processing in Saudi Arabia is carried out at seven refineries with a total primary processing capacity of 105.3 million tons per year (Table 5).

As shown in Table 5, some plants are wholly owned by the State, while others are managed by joint ventures established by Saudi ARAMCO in partnership with foreign companies.

It is worth noting that the country is not going to stop there, but plans to increase the total oil refining capacity to 300 million tons per year and, accordingly, increase the export of petroleum products. The program, which includes the expansion and modernization of existing refineries, as well as the construction of new ones, has already been launched by Riyadh, in particular, the construction of the Petro Rabih complex continues, the first stage of which was completed in 2009 (the primary processing capacity is 20 million tons of crude oil per year). The second stage of the project (3 million tons of crude oil per year) is planned to be commissioned in 2014.

Together with the French company Total, work is underway on the construction of an oil refining and petrochemical complex in Jubail. Primary processing capacity of the enterprise - 20 million tons of crude oil per year; commissioning-

10 Assessment of the Central Department of Emergency Situations of the Fuel and Energy Complex.

page 109
Table 5

Saudi Oil Refineries

OIL REFINERIES

Company

Capacity, million tons per year

Ras Tannura

Saudi ARAMCO

27.5

Jeddah

Saudi ARAMCO

4.4

Riyadh

Saudi ARAMCO

6.1

Yanbu

Saudi ARAMCO

11.8

SAMREF - Yanbu

Saudi ARAMCO (50%), Exxon Mobil (50%)

20.2

SLSREF-Jubail

Saudi ARAMCO (50%), Shell (50%)

15.3

Petro Rabih

Saudi ARAMCO (37.5%), Sumitomo (37.5%), private investors - 25%

20.0

Total

105.3

Составлено по данным: Saudi Aramco: http://www.saudiaramco.com/en/home.html#ouroperations%257C%252Fen%252Fhome%252Four-operations%252Fchemicals-and-refining%252 Fventure-refineries-and-chemicals.baseajax.html.

The project is scheduled for 2013 [http://www.saudiaramco.com/en...]. By 2015, it was decided to create a similar facility in the industrial center of Yanbu. In addition, a project to create another petrochemical complex in Jubail is being implemented with the participation of the American company Dau Chemical.

Since the end of 2011, Saudi ARAMCO has started developing a project for the construction of an oil refinery in the port city of Jizan. The plant's capacity will be 20 million tons per year. The works are planned to be completed in 2016, having invested about $ 7 billion by that time. [http:// abarrelfull.wikidot.com...].

If the country succeeds in completing these projects on time and bringing the total number of refineries to at least ten, then, according to the adviser to the Saudi Ministry of Oil and Mineral Resources, F Al Saud, it will have the widest network of refineries in the entire Middle East.

To achieve this goal, the Kingdom is ready to allocate large financial resources. In December 2011, at the 6th Forum of the Association of Petrochemicals and Chemistry of the Persian Gulf countries (held in Dubai), F. Al Saud announced that by 2016, investments in the expansion of raw material processing capacities will amount to $ 150 billion. [Joint Oil Data Initiative..., 21.12.2011]. This amount of capital investment is really capable of providing the state with leading indicators in this area.

* * *

Thus, it can be concluded that the main projects of the KSA in the oil industry are related to the search and development of new fields, improvement and technological modernization of transport infrastructure, construction of oil refining and petrochemical plants. By implementing this plan, the country seeks not only to increase the export of hydrocarbons, but also to maintain and strengthen its high global positions among the countries with the most developed oil sector.

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