The article presents a system of forecasts of world economic development made by the method of scenario analysis, which has shown its effectiveness in solving such problems. The system includes industry-specific forecasts for population development, food and energy situation (first level), and consolidated forecasts based on first-level forecasts. Some industry scenarios clearly correspond to global ones, and some do not. A two-level system of scenarios leads to the conclusion that the direction of development of globalization is an important factor in the future until 2050. New industrialization in the West, the development of new technologies and demographic aging of the population and its natural decline, the increase in internal conflicts in the implementation of multiculturalism policies in Europe and North America can push the West to isolationism.

Keywords: scenario forecasts, two-level forecasting system, demographic development, food situation, energy.

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When analyzing complex systems, both technical and social, scenario analysis has proven to be an effective forecasting method. Originally developed for predicting scientific and technological progress, the scenario forecasting method has become widely used in economics, sociology, and political science due to the fact that it allows you to give a more or less complete picture of the development paths of the socio-economic system under study in the form of several images of the future. Quantitative methods with greater accuracy and specification of deadlines, which provide quantitative calculations, do not give such a complete picture of the future.

Among the major works on the study of the future using a scenario approach, we can single out the international study of the Post-Crisis World Foundation "Perspective 2050. New Political and Economic Map of the World", prepared in February-May 2013. [Perspektiva-2050, 2013]. The Post - Crisis World Research and Social Design Foundation (Post-Crisis World Foundation) is an independent analytical center established in Moscow in 2009 on the initiative of the Public Opinion Foundation, the Business Solidarity Non-Profit Partnership Center, the Stock Market Development Center Foundation, and a number of other organizations. In this study, a survey of 303 experts from 63 countries was conducted to determine the prospects for the development of the global system.

An example of the analysis used in this study is the answer to the questions presented in Table 1.

Table 1

State of the world, % of experts surveyed

State of the world in 2050

Responses, % of respondents

Progress, stability

Regression, decline, and ruin

Uncertainty, a crossroads

35

34

31

S o s t a v l e n o po: Perspektiva-2050..., 2013, p. 29, diagram 5a.

This kind of assessment of qualitative options for the state of the world and ways to change it is given in the report on various aspects of development and regions.

Another study on forecasting global development until 2030 is the report of the US National Intelligence Council "Global Trends by 2030: Alternative Options for World Development", published in December 2012 [Global Trends 2030, 2012]. It highlights the main trends: increasing the role of the individual in society in the course of socio-economic development and improving the level of health care, education, poverty reduction, etc.; diffusion of economic and political power, the formation of a multipolar world and influential networks and alliances; demographic changes resulting in a reduction in the areas of political instability fed by the young population of developing countries reducing economic growth in countries experiencing an aging population, continuing urbanization and increasing migration; increasing problems of providing food, fresh water and energy to the growing world population.

These trends, according to the authors of the report, can potentially lead to the following four options for the development of the world.

1. "Stalled engines". This is an undesirable scenario that increases the risk of a major international conflict as a result of a new "big game" in Asia. This kind of conflict should not reach the scale of the First or Second World Wars, but large states can be involved in it.

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2. "The Big Melting Pot". This scenario reflects a positive development path involving close cooperation between the US, EU and China. Under this scenario, not only transition economies continue to grow rapidly, but also developed countries are increasing their economic growth rates.

3. "Genie from the bottle". According to this scenario, the world is waiting for unexpected changes. This scenario assumes that there will be both successful and losers among the countries of the world. The possibility of the collapse of the EU, the refusal of the United States from the role of the "world gendarme", the reduction of oil prices and the associated losses of oil exporting countries are considered. Overall, global economic growth in this scenario is worse than in the "Big Melting Pot" scenario, but better than in the "Stalled Engines" scenario.

4. "A World without States". In this scenario, non-governmental organizations, multinational companies, academic institutions, and wealthy individuals become powerful players and take on responsibilities and risks in a changing world.

Oriental studies have accumulated experience in using scenarios for long-term forecasting. This is a system of scenarios for long-term global development [Akimov, 2008], scenarios for the development of civilizations [Akimov, Yakovlev, 2012]. In this paper, scenarios for each of the modern world civilizations are supplemented with scenarios for the global system, i.e. a two-level system of scenarios is constructed. Adapted for the period up to 2050 for the countries of Asia and North Africa, these scenarios were evaluated by experts, resulting in quantitative estimates of the probability of implementing scenarios for China, Japan, Indonesia, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey, Arab oil exporting countries and other Arab countries until 2050. 43 experts from research institutes and universities in Moscow and St. Petersburg participated in the scenario assessment [Vostochnaya Analitika, 2014].

The main scenarios are briefly described below, and they summarize the processes that will be described later in separate articles in the next issues of the journal.

population

"The demographic trend continues." Gradual population aging in developed countries and completion of demographic transition in developing countries. Demographic changes are occurring at the same rate and in the same proportions as in recent decades. In developed countries, due to the aging of the population, a narrowed type of population reproduction is gradually developing and a natural population decline begins. Developing countries are gradually undergoing a demographic transition, the population growth rate is decreasing, although the growth rate remains.

"Emerging market growth is above trend." Slowing demographic transition in developing countries. It can also be associated with solving the food problem. Islamic countries, in particular Pakistan, show a slow rate of decline in the birth rate. Sub-Saharan Africa is slowly being drawn into the demographic transition compared to Asia. It is slowed down here by the still existing possibility of traditional farming in rural areas-Africa is less densely populated than most Asian countries. The threat of an aging population and economic growth have already led to a loosening of restrictive measures in China's demographic policy. The possibility of some increase in the birth rate in this regard is not excluded.

"Migrations to the north" - a lot of migrations from Asia and Africa to Western and Eastern Europe, Japan and China. An increase in emigration from countries with high population growth rates to those where the population is not growing or even decreasing. These are traditionally European countries, as well as the USA and Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

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Russia and other Eastern European countries may also be attractive for migrant workers from near and far abroad. There is a possibility that Japan will also open the country to migrant workers. Potentially, the PRC may also become a host country for immigrants in the future due to aging.

"The North is closing." The growth of technologies that increase labor productivity leads to the fact that developed countries are massively forming an economy of machines, mechanisms, machine tools and robots, which minimally needs to attract cheap labor. In this case, labor migration becomes unnecessary. Developed countries are tightening immigration rules, and the entry of labor immigrants and their family members is sharply restricted. The development of telecommunications technologies expands the use of outsourcing in the field of information and intellectual services, which allows developed countries to use a relatively skilled part of the workforce of developing countries in their countries of residence.

FOOD SITUATION

"The food trend continues." The balance is maintained, but for the least developed countries, this balance is close to the minimum allowable physiological norms. There are no noticeable changes in the structure of world food production.

"Food shortage". Environmental problems, land depletion and water scarcity for irrigation are leading to chronic food shortages in a number of developing countries. In East, Southeast, and South Asia, soil erosion, pollution, and water depletion are severely limiting the potential of genetic engineering and other new agricultural technologies to increase agricultural productivity. Lack of investment leads to stagnation in Africa's agriculture. South America, Europe and North America allocate significant areas for growing crops for the production of biofuels. As a result, the supply of agricultural products on the world market is declining, and the world is teetering on the verge of food shortages with temporary exacerbations of the situation.

"Food abundance" is a scientific and technological revolution or an appeal to solving a food problem as a political solution. This scenario assumes an increase in production in East Asia, an increase in food production and exports in Southeast Asia, and some progress in addressing the food problem in South and Southwest Asia. At the same time, there will be an increase in production in Africa due to the expansion of agricultural areas and increased yields as a result of the development of new more productive grain varieties. At the same time, there will be an increase in production in South America and the production capacity of North America and Europe will not be reduced. European and North American agriculture will develop elements of a land-saving production model, which will further increase the productivity of production in these regions.

ENERGY SECTOR

"Carbon energy". This scenario assumes that the main trends observed in retrospect will continue. China and India remain the main consumers of thermal coal, while China remains the largest producer. Natural gas delivered both through pipelines and in liquefied form will occupy an increasing share in the balance of primary fuel and energy resources (FER). Oil will be widely used for processing into various types of transport fuel, but the use of fuel oil in stationary power generation will significantly decrease.

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The importance of global trade in fuel and energy resources will continue and even grow: coal, oil and gas will be imported in increasing volumes by countries that do not have their own national reserves of primary fuel and energy resources.

"New types of energy". The rapid development of technologies, the growing demand for fuel and energy resources in developing countries that do not have a sufficiently developed energy economy and therefore are not burdened with outdated energy capacities focused on carbon fuels, and the desire to reduce dependence on imports of primary fuel and energy sources lead to the rapid introduction of electricity capacities based on new types of energy in many countries. First of all, it is wind and solar energy. In addition, the construction of nuclear power plants is being steadily expanded. The demand for electricity is largely driven by advances in the development of electric vehicles.

"Global deficit and competition for fuel and energy resources". Rapid population growth in developing countries, with successful catch-up development, has led to a significant increase in the need for fuel and energy resources. Price spikes in the oil market, which led to a decrease in investment in the oil and gas sector and consequently to a decrease in production in the future, environmental restrictions in the coal industry and nuclear power, technological restrictions and the high price of new types of energy caused insufficient supply in the energy markets. As a result, there is a steady shortage of fuel and energy resources in the global economy. It most strongly affected developing countries, where demand grew at a rapid pace. Developed countries are significantly less likely to experience a shortage of fuel and energy resources.

The scenarios presented above reflect trends in individual sectors of the economy and population dynamics. Naturally, these scenarios can be combined to form a complete picture of global development. Below are scenarios that are intended to describe the global dynamics as a whole.

COMMON SCENARIOS

"Constant trend". There are no drastic changes in the observed trends. Development is shaped by already emerging trends, and their pace is such that there is no going beyond the capabilities of existing resources, technologies, existing modes of functioning of national states and interstate relations. Within this framework, it is possible to accelerate the pace of development in some states and reduce it in others, but the main proportions will not undergo radical changes.

"The best combination of circumstances." This scenario describes the most favorable combination of circumstances in terms of global development. It assumes that there will be no losers. Increased benefits for all are made possible by the widespread adoption of scientific and technological advances, as well as the strengthening of the best features of globalization, such as the flow of technology and capital to developing countries and transition economies, international cooperation in the use of natural resources, international development assistance, the elimination of international conflicts, and the success of developing countries in catching up.

"The worst combination of circumstances." The conditions listed in the "Best Case Scenario" are not met. Uneven development and lack of resources lead to the fact that there are clearly losers in terms of socio-economic development. Such losers may include developing countries (South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa), transition economies (China, Russia, and the former Soviet Union), and developed countries (the EU, Japan, and, less likely, the United States in the event of China's strong growth). This development leads to deterioration of international relations, conflicts, including the danger of sliding into armed confrontation and even military actions.

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Table 2

Correlation of population development scenarios, food and energy situation up to 2050

Global scenarios

Industry scenarios

"The constant trend"
"The best combination of circumstances"
"The worst combination of circumstances"
"The West is separating economically"

"Demographic trend persists", "Food trend persists", "Carbon energy ""Northward migrations", "Food abundance", "New Types of Energy ""Developing countries' growth is above trend", "Northward migrations", "Food Scarcity", "Global Scarcity and Competition for Fuel and energy resources""The North is closing", "Food shortage", "Food abundance", "New types of energy"

"The West is separating economically." The combination of success in science and technology, energy, food production, and the development of labor-saving technologies and robotics leads to the formation of a reproduction complex in Western countries (including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan) that is independent of the supply of energy resources and food from developing countries, and technology in all areas of the economy. they are based on labor-saving technologies that ensure high labor productivity. Foreign labor is not needed for extended reproduction. In fact, the West is developing a self-sufficient economy that can develop quite successfully without the influx of resources and products from developing countries and transition economies, a new industrialization is taking place on a modern technological basis, and the West needs globalization only as a means of influencing the world beyond its borders.

The relationship between industry-specific and global scenarios is presented in Table 2.

Thus, some industry scenarios clearly correspond to global ones, and some do not. The coincidence is obvious in the case of a"Constant Trend". In all other cases, industry scenarios may be implemented differently in a changing global environment. Thus, migrations to the global North can be both the result of successful development of globalization and international cooperation, and the result of catastrophic development of the economic, in particular food, situation in the South. Food scarcity or abundance either corresponds to similar global scenarios, or can be realized if the West separates economically. Then the food problem becomes the lot of the developing world, and the West does not actively participate in its solution. The development of new sources of energy can also be combined with two global scenarios: favorable development and economic separation of the West.

Thus, the constructed two-level system of scenarios leads to the conclusion that in the future up to 2050, an important factor in addition to the above is the direction of development of globalization. New industrialization in the West, the development of new technologies and demographic aging of the population and its natural decline, the growth of internal conflicts in the implementation of multiculturalism policies in the Russian Federation.

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countries in Europe and North America can push the West towards isolationism in a number of aspects, including the economy and population migration.

Such changes deform the existing system of international economic and political relations. China's role will grow dramatically. It is shared with other major developing countries

economies, in fact, will have to bear responsibility for global development.

The scenarios described in Table 2, although constructed for slightly different purposes than the scenarios presented in the forecasts described at the beginning of this article, face the same uncertainties in the development of the future. The identified development options may or may not be realized, but consideration of the probability of their occurrence, the conditions under which they may appear, and the degree of their occurrence should be taken into account in further studies, including both clarification and modification of the scenarios proposed above, and collective expert assessments to obtain quantitative indicators of the probability of different scenarios based on collective expert assessments.

list of literature

Akimov A.V., Yakovlev A. I. Civilizatsii v XXI veke: problemy i perspektivy razvitie [Civilizations in the XXI century: Problems and Prospects of Development]. Moscow: MSU Publishing House, 2012.

Digital analytics. Yearbook 2013, Moscow: IV RAS Publ., 2014. The "Forecast scenarios" section.

Akimov A.V. 2000: Global Problems and Russia, Moscow: Vostochny University, 2008.
Perspective-2050. New Political and Economic Map of the World, Moscow: Post-Crisis World Foundation, February-May 2013.

Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. National Intelligence Council. USA. December 2012.

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