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On May 30, 2007, the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences hosted the next annual scientific conference, organized by the Southeast Asia Department, on topical issues of development of the region and individual countries of Southeast Asia. The conference participants are employees of the Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, other academic institutes, higher educational institutions in Moscow, and employees of practical organizations. The conference was dedicated to the memory of Doctor of Economics O. G. Baryshnikova.

The participants paid tribute to O. G. Baryshnikova. Yu. O. Levtonova (IB RAS) spoke about Olga Gavrilovna as a friend and colleague for many years of scientific cooperation. O. G. Baryshnikova is a major economist, researcher of the Philippine economy, who also dealt with issues of economic development of the region as a whole. Yu. O. Levtonova noted the role of O. G. Baryshnikova as an initiator holding annual scientific conferences devoted to various aspects of the modern development of Southeast Asia and individual countries of the region. In the memory of colleagues and friends, Olga Baryshnikova will remain a highly professional specialist, an extremely hardworking, energetic and obliging person, a witty, beautiful, charming woman.

The conference program included three blocks of issues: 1. Politics and geopolitics. 2. Economy of Southeast Asia in 2006 3. Country problems.

The first block of problems was opened by D. V. Mosyakov's report "Aggravation of US-Chinese contradictions in Southeast Asia". A new factor in the geopolitical configuration in Southeast Asia is the aggravation of US-Chinese contradictions in Greater East Asia, of which the Southeast Asian region is a part. The struggle for dominance in the region is quite understandable, because it is becoming one of the main centers of world development and economic growth, occupying the most important geopolitical position at the junction of the Asian continent, the Indian and Pacific Oceans. The region with a population of more than 500 million people is shaping up to be one of the fastest growing consumer markets, and natural resources, especially oil and tin, can't help but attract major players on the Asian and global stage. The United States primarily focuses on strengthening its military presence in the region. Four carrier groups and almost 60% of all US submarine forces are now concentrated in the Pacific Ocean. But Washington is raising the question of a full-scale US return to the region not only in the military sphere, but also in the economy and politics, where China's position is increasingly strengthening. As for the ASEAN countries, their public opinion is generally negative about US policy. The idea of creating economic and political organizations in the region without the participation of the United States was implemented, in particular, in the creation of the East Asia Summit. There are proposals to establish an Asian monetary system independent of the IMF and the World Bank. The growing Asian nationalism is becoming increasingly anti-American and anti-Western. Many ASEAN elites see China as the leading force in the Asian economy, and the vast Chinese market as a competitor to the American one. The rivalry between the United States and China in the struggle for dominance in Southeast Asia thus covers almost all the main areas - military, economic and political. As in the second half of the 20th century (during the Vietnam War), Southeast Asia is once again coming to the forefront of world politics. It is here that the process of a new geopolitical division of the world, a new confrontation of great powers, is being outlined.

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A. A. Rogozhin (IMEMO RAS) in his report "The Southeast Asian countries and the United States - political declarations and economic realities" 1 drew attention to the fact that, despite the noticeable growth of anti-American sentiment in the region and the corresponding rhetoric in the speeches of many politicians, often very high-ranking representatives of the Southeast Asian countries, economic relations between these countries and the United States are developing quite successfully and in an upward direction-this applies not only to such traditional areas as trade in goods and investment, but also to a number of new ones, primarily trade in services. This situation is mainly due to the growing mutual interest of the parties in cooperation and the concerns of both partners regarding China and, to a lesser extent, Japan.

The Southeast Asian countries at the current stage of their development are extremely interested in further expansion and qualitative transformation of the production of non-primary goods, their large-scale and stable exports. In this regard, the opportunities of the American market are attractive for all countries of the region - both for Singapore and Cambodia. The United States, in turn, sees Southeast Asia as a region of ever-increasing opportunities for selling American goods and especially services, as well as as a kind of investment alternative to China. The United States began to feel an increasingly clear threat to its position in the Southeast Asian economy due to the sharp not only political, but also economic strengthening of China, as well as due to the "return" of its long - time and influential competitor, Japan, to the region. Southeast Asian countries are concerned about Chinese expansion in the region (the most powerful "balancer" of which can only be the United States) and, most importantly for them, the threat to the competitiveness of their goods from China in the capacious American market. And in the region, so far only the United States can be a real "balancer" in the relations of the Southeast Asian countries with Japan. The speaker also noted that the countries of the region and the United States are now seeking to conclude extensive bilateral framework agreements on economic cooperation, mainly free trade agreements, similar to the one concluded in 2003 between the United States and Singapore (in 2005-2007, in a very difficult situation, relevant negotiations were conducted with Malaysia and Thailand). At the same time, however, the first multilateral framework agreement between the United States and ASEAN on trade and investment is being prepared in a difficult way.

E. V. Koldunova (MGIMO University) Russian Foreign Ministry) in its report "Building the ASEAN Community: Security Prospects" highlighted several aspects. At the 12th Summit in the Philippines (Cebu, January 9-15, 2007), ASEAN leaders adopted a number of documents, including the Declaration on the Accelerated Establishment of the ASEAN Community by 2015, which should be based on three pillars: common security, an integrated economy, and a system of liberal democratic values.

The second block of reports was opened by S. A. Bylinyak's presentation "Economic growth in the countries of South-East and East Asia". He examined the economic growth characteristics of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan, which in the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s (before the financial crisis) showed the highest economic growth rates in the world. According to the speaker, since 2003, these countries have entered a period of economic growth after crises. However, the growth rate is not stable and is lower than it was in the pre-crisis period. This is due to a number of problems in these countries. In the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s, the average annual growth rate of these countries was about 8%, which exceeded the growth rate of developed countries. In 2003-2006, these figures are 5% and 2%, respectively, which, in contrast to the pre-crisis period, does not allow us to close the gap with developed countries (GDP per capita). The presentation also examines the reasons for the slowdown in economic growth, due to both external and internal factors, including reduced investment.

M. V. Matyukhin (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) in his report "Foreign direct investment in Southeast Asia - goals, dynamics, spheres" described the main factors that contributed to a significant acceleration of capital outflow from the region's countries in the period after 2005, highlighting among them the increased need to expand traditional and develop new sales markets, as well as the need to transfer of production capacity to countries with lower costs. The speaker noted that the scale of this phenomenon has significantly expanded - in 2000-2005, the volume of accumulated direct investment of Southeast Asian countries abroad almost doubled and by the beginning of 2006.

1 The report was prepared within the framework of the RGNF grant No. 06-02-02031a.


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it amounted to almost $ 176 billion. (in fact, this figure is much higher, since at least 1/4 of such investments were made through offshore centers). The export of direct investment from Southeast Asian countries has significantly increased. According to M. V. Matyukhin, by mid-2006, they amounted to at least 12-15 billion rubles annually. compared to $ 5-6 billion in the 1990s. Singapore shows the greatest propensity to invest abroad, which annually makes direct investments in other countries of about 5 ^ 6 billion. Malaysia (3 billion) and Indonesia (3 billion). Thailand and the Philippines, on the other hand, have noticeably weakened their investment activity abroad. In 2006, Vietnam and even Cambodia started making foreign direct investments for the first time. The distribution of foreign direct investment in the region has significant country specifics, but it can be noted: 1) the emerging propensity for direct investment within Southeast Asia; 2) the clear predominance of manufacturing industries as the main area of direct investment; 3) a new phenomenon - investment in raw materials, primarily in oil and gas exploration and production, which is typical for direct investment from Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand.

In her speech, M. G. Osipova (Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences) noted that the limited financial integration in Southeast Asia is caused by the consequences of the 1997 - 1998 financial crisis. At the same time, Asia's integration into the international financial system has progressed quite far. However, by participating in the global financial market, ASEAN countries have the opportunity to expand their intra-regional ties. Financial integration in Asia is a slow process, resulting in increased capital flows between countries. The synchronicity of financial markets is enhanced, and commodity prices and market infrastructure are brought to common standards. One of the indicators of financial integration is its geographical coverage, i.e. the importance of regional ties increases in comparison with global ones. The development of financial integration contributes to economic growth, but at the same time requires a balanced public policy. For this purpose, monitoring groups are established, for example, to provide a framework for the exchange of information on financial regulation.

Mikhail Kuritsyn (Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Geo-Spectrum Group of Companies), in the report "Chinese investments in Southeast Asia - trends and prospects", noted that, according to Chinese official data, as of the beginning of 2006, China's direct capital investments in the region significantly exceed similar investments of these countries in China-38.5 and 1 USD billion accordingly. In fact, the situation is different: according to the calculations of the author, who takes into account that the bulk of Chinese investments in Southeast Asia are realized through Hong Kong (to a lesser extent - through the offshore companies of the Cayman and British Virgin Islands), their total volume in the region exceeds $ 35 billion. Such investments "under a false flag" are actively used by Chinese companies in those countries where the domestic political situation is not yet fully favorable for them, primarily in Indonesia. That is why, in fact, the latter ranks second in terms of attracted Chinese direct investment after the undisputed and clear leader - Singapore (followed by Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines). In total, more than 1 thousand officially located in the ASEAN countries. enterprises with Chinese capital participation, but in fact there are significantly more of them, since these investments are made by companies registered in Hong Kong or Singapore.

Topic of the speech by E. P. Zakaznikova (IB RAS) " Labor force: comparative analysis of Indonesia and other Southeast Asian countries. Current situation and trends". The labor force in Southeast Asia is more than 270 million people, of which 106 million are in Indonesia. The labor force is projected to grow from 5.5% in Thailand to 30% in Laos by 2015. The region has the highest youth unemployment rate in Asia, at 16%, and a number of countries also have total unemployment, especially in the Philippines and Indonesia, where youth unemployment is 10.4%, compared to more than 40% for semi - unemployed people; this is also the national poverty rate in this country. These countries are also the largest labor exporters in Southeast Asia, with 8.5 and 4 million people working abroad in 2006, respectively. Malaysia, Thailand and, to the greatest extent, Brunei import it. The deterioration of the workers ' situation caused mass protests in Indonesia, in which more than 120 thousand people participated, in Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, which led to the adoption of measures by the governments of these countries to improve it. Thus, the policy of the authorities in the socio-economic sphere has a direct impact on the problem of stability in the Southeast Asian countries.

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In her speech "The role of the environmental factor in shaping the business environment in the Southeast Asian Countries2" N. G. Rogozhina (IMEMO RAS) argued the importance of including environmental needs in the development strategy of the Southeast Asian countries, based on the task set for them to form a new model of "environmental-friendly growth". This means that their industrial development should be carried out with a focus on improving the efficiency of resource use and reducing the threat of environmental pollution. Achieving this goal is unthinkable without the active participation of business, which traditionally considers environmental protection as a costly area of activity. However, it will have to adapt to new environmental development requirements that affect the formation of the business environment, the parameters of which will change under the influence of a number of factors: 1) the integration of developing countries into the world economy; 2) the formation of a middle class with higher requirements for the quality of life; 3) the information revolution; 4) the spread of industrialization and urbanization. The environment should be considered by the business community not as an additional type of cost, but as a new opportunity for business development, especially in terms of quality. This approach is the basis of the state policy in the Southeast Asian countries to include business in the process of greening economic development with the prospect of increasing the competitive opportunities of the region's countries in the world.

A. P. Muranova's speech (IB RAS) was devoted to tax benefits for businesses in the Southeast Asian countries. The increased integration process at the global and regional levels, she noted, increases competition between countries seeking to attract foreign direct investment. Under these conditions, taxation, first of all, tax benefits, also becomes an important element of the investment climate. By the beginning of the XXI century. the geographical scope of fiscal benefits has expanded. In addition to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines, which have used this tool extensively for many decades, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar have been legally granted preferential taxation since the late 1980s. The traditional set of fiscal benefits (tax holidays, lower tax rates, reduced depreciation periods, etc.) is being extended to an increasing number of industries, primarily those that ensure scientific and technological progress and rapid economic development. The attitude to fiscal easing is ambiguous - there are both supporters and opponents of this tool, who believe that the damage caused to the budget exceeds the positive results of economic activity of recipients of these benefits.

G. S. Shabalina (Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences), reviewing the prospects of regional relations between Russia and the countries of Southeast Asia, noted the growing mutual interest in their development and diversification. Within the framework of bilateral cooperation between Russia and Southeast Asian countries or through ASEAN, information technologies, macro - and microtechnologies, telecommunications, biotechnologies, and education are more widely included in the number of industry priorities along with the agro-industrial complex. Relevant negotiations are ongoing, and certain agreements on intentions have been reached, as well as some agreements between state organizations and private businesses. In 2006-the first half of 2007, the Government of the Russian Federation drew attention to the need to use the experience of Singapore, Malaysia, and other Southeast Asian countries in creating and supporting "growth zones" on a bilateral, trilateral, and multilateral basis, as well as in developing and modernizing technology parks. As the experience of 2006 - 2007 shows, both ASEAN and some Southeast Asian countries show interest in studying investment opportunities in Russia and its individual regions (the Far East, Siberia, the Republic of Tatarstan, the Southern Federal District), and the potential of the special economic zones being created. Cooperation between a number of Russian regions and individual provinces and administrative divisions of Southeast Asian countries (including in the field of tourism) is being established. The activity of the business community, in turn, depends on state support3.

The third block of reports was opened by A. Yu. Drugov (IB RAS). Describing the situation in Indonesia in 2006, he noted that along with the obvious easing of ethnic and religious tensions and terrorist activity, opposition to the Government of President S. B. Yudhoy has increased-

2 The report was prepared within the framework of the RGNF grant No. 06-02-02031a.

3 B. J. Heifetz's article "Priorities in the development of economic relations between Russia and the ASEAN countries"will be devoted to this topic in one of the next issues.


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it is in the circles of the military and civilian elite. The achieved level of economic growth has not yet stopped the growth of unemployment and significantly reduced the number of people living below the poverty level. The process of Islamization in the grassroots continues, despite calls for religious tolerance from leading religious leaders. In the field of foreign policy, an important place was occupied by the visit of the President of Indonesia to the Russian Federation against the background of increasing anti-American sentiment in Indonesian society. Territorial conflicts with neighboring Singapore and Malaysia are a worrying issue.

Presentation by L. M. Efimova (MGIMO University) Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation) is devoted to the problem of Islam and democracy in Indonesia. In 2006, a discussion about the compatibility of Islam and democracy took a prominent place in Indonesian Muslim public thought. This discussion was caused both by the influence of global trends of globalization and democratization, and by the search for ways of socio-political development of Indonesia itself after the collapse of the authoritarian Suharto regime. The discussion showed that there is a significant range of opinions of Muslim religious and socio-political figures on this issue. Representatives of the extreme right wing, often referred to as Islamic fundamentalists, proclaim the absolute incompatibility of Islam and democracy. They are opposed by moderate figures who share the approaches to this problem of such prominent leaders and ideologues of the XXI century as Nurholis Majid and Abdurrahman Wahid, who believe that Islam and democracy are quite compatible. At the same time, they propose to improve democracy at the expense of moral and ethical Islamic principles. Others believe that Indonesia should build an Indonesian-style Islamic democracy.

M. O. Kulikova (IB RAS) focused on the political situation in the Indonesian province of Aceh in 2006. In December 2006, the first direct elections of the governor and vice-governor were held here. Yusuf Irwandi, leader of the separatist Movement for a Free Aceh (DSA), won the election. The results came as a surprise to many experts. The holding of elections, as well as the participation of independent candidates, became possible after the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (August 2005), and then the adoption of the Aceh Province New Status Act (July 2006). Many provisions of the memorandum were omitted or reformulated in the law. There was a fierce debate between DSA supporters and the government, and as a result, the government made significant concessions, except for the main one - the proclamation of Aceh as a province with self-government. The new Aceh government faces a difficult task-to meet the expectations of the voters, eliminate the conservative old elite, and prevent arbitrariness on the part of former DSA members who have gained power.

Elena A. Cherepneva (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) briefly addressed issues related to the role of the Indonesian Orthodox Church as part of the Christian community of Indonesia in interreligious cooperation, the goal of which is to achieve stability of the multinational Indonesian society, interaction and dialogue between Christians and Muslims. (Indonesia is the fifth-largest country in the world, with a population of about 220 million, and the world's first-largest Muslim population: almost 90% of Indonesians identify as Muslim.)

In his speech, G. V. Suchkov (Vostochny University at the Institute of Military History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) analyzed the role of the army in the socio-political life of Indonesia. In 2006 - the first half of 2007, the country continued to have heated discussions on this topic. The army often became the object of attention of members of the National Parliament, who considered a number of bills that are directly related to the adjustment of the boundaries of the activities of the Indonesian National Army. Giving the military the right to vote was also a noteworthy issue , as many representatives from various parts of the Indonesian political spectrum and the first echelon of the army command expressed their position on this issue. In 2007, the army's activities were transferred to new doctrinal tracks: the former doctrine gave way to a new one, as it is more appropriate to modern realities. During this time period, there was (or rather, it became more noticeable) a confrontation within the military elite, which can be largely explained by the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections in 2009.

V. F. Urlyapov (IB RAS), describing some aspects of Malaysia's political development, noted the discrepancy between the recovery of the Malaysian economy in 2006 (the highest rates for all three years of Prime Minister Badawi's tenure) and the domestic political situation. For half a century of independence, the multinational country has not turned into a multi-ethnic state.-

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It turned into a "melting pot" in which the Malaysian nation would be born. Moreover, in Malaysia, the contradictions between the growing power of Islam, represented by indigenous Malays, on the one hand, and the Chinese and Indians, on the other, have deepened. Ethno-confessional issues were the focus of the congress of the ruling United Malay National Organization. A number of deputies in an aggressive form demanded "to put local Chinese and Indians in their place, without fear of shedding blood." Against this background, a confrontation broke out in the Malay elite between Abdullah Badawi and former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad. The latter accused the head of government of weak leadership, obviously meaning that in fact real power passed into the hands of Khairi Jamaluddin, the Prime Minister's son-in-law.

L. F. Pakhomova (IV RAS) noted the most important events of 2006 in Malaysia, highlighting the adoption of the Third General Industrial Plan (2006-2020) and the Ninth Five - year Plan (2006-2010). She focused on the main results of the path taken by Malaysia to achieve the status of a "fully developed state" by 2020 "based on its own development model", and also highlighted the challenges facing the country for 15 years. This is primarily to increase the competitiveness of Malaysian products on a global scale through innovation and further restructuring of the manufacturing and service industries. A special role is assigned to 12 strategic industries that create high added value. These include the electronic and electrical industries, mechanical engineering, automotive industry, petrochemical industry, etc. Malaysian economists consider it extremely important to include national companies in global chains of production and value creation. Malaysia's leading companies are tasked with reaching the level of MNCs. Achieving these and other socio-economic goals requires increased attention to training qualified personnel and developing R & D. Malaysia has liberalized the education system, which accelerates the transition to a "knowledge economy" and allows for the creation of qualitatively new productive forces. Malaysia aims to become not only one of the world's leading trading powers, but also a global center for the formation of highly qualified and creative workers who meet the requirements of international standards.

Yu. O. Levtonova (IB RAS), reviewing the political situation in the Philippines in 2006. - in the first half of 2007, she drew attention to the continued unpredictability and chaotic nature of the political process and the country's economic lag behind the five "advanced" ASEAN members. The main reason for this is the growing inconsistency of the national political system with the needs and challenges of our time. The situation in the Philippines is reminiscent of the crisis of the 1960s and 1970s on the eve of the establishment of an authoritarian regime. Once again, the question of ways to improve the social climate is acute (not excluding statist-authoritarian options). But the most popular idea is the constitutional reform, which provides for a transition from a presidential form of government to a parliamentary one, which was at the center of a fierce political struggle in 2006 and early 2007.So far, the opponents of the reform have the upper hand, but the idea itself is not buried. President G. Arroyo, recognized as the most unpopular head of state in the entire post-war history of the country, retains power mainly because of the lack of large-scale rival leaders in both opposition and pro-government circles.

In her speech, E. M. Gurevich (Institute of Information Technology of the Russian Academy of Sciences) considered some features of the development of the city-state of Singapore as a global center. Singapore is one of the clearest examples of the fact that globalization brings not only positive beginnings, but also new challenges and threats, especially to small countries, among which it undoubtedly belongs. Globalization has helped Singapore, with its specific position as a city-state, firmly enter the system of world economic relations and establish itself on the world market, becoming a sphere of interaction between various international organizations, TNCs, and various subcultures. As a result, Singapore has become a global hub of manufacturing, services and finance, becoming the country with the most globalized economy. But the paradox of Singapore's reality is that Singapore's existence as a sovereign State depends on its status as a global center. Hence pragmatism and selectivity in the development of a political course. On the one hand, active inclusion in the globalizing economy, and on the other - a defensive reaction against globalization, which is seen as a challenge to national sovereignty.

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E. L. Fomineva (IB RAS) traced the development of the political crisis of late 2005 - 2007 in Thailand. The predominance of the Thai Rak Thai party in parliament, the ambiguous policy of the government of Thaksin Chinnawat, the authoritarian habits of the Prime Minister have significantly complicated his position and intensified the activities of numerous opponents. As a result of mass demonstrations in Bangkok in early 2006, the government was dissolved and new elections were called, in which (not for the first time) the ruling TRT won. The opposition did not recognize the elections, declaring that they were rigged. It was clear to all participants in the political process that new elections would not resolve the political conflict. Therefore, certain political circles resorted to a proven means of resolving it - a military coup committed on September 19, 2006. This development set Thailand back 15 years, interrupting the development of democracy and calling into question the degree of maturity of the country's political system.

V. F. Vasiliev (IB RAS) devoted his speech to the events in Myanmar (Burma) related to the relocation and relocation of the capital from Yangon (Rangoon) to the new capital Naypyidaw ("Sunny", "Royal"), which is being built about 400 km north of Yangon at the foot of the low Pegu Mountains, which began in November 2005 in the jungle area and close to the small town of Pyinmana. Thus, the administrative capital of the country becomes a national new building located in the interior of the country, and the old "colonial" capital in terms of development and seaside location Yangon is preserved as an economic and commercial center. The available sparse official statements and foreign comments suggest that there were two main reasons for moving the capital. The internal reason is related to the military junta's planned political reform and the creation of a new state system that is easier for the military authorities to organize and control from a new isolated center and from Yangon, the "nest" of the past and possibly future democratic opposition. Another reason can be seen in an attempt to" shelter "the administrative and military center of the country in the interior of the country from a possible" strike "by the United States in the manner of their actions in Iraq (although the probability of such a "strike" for a number of good reasons is very small).

In her speech, A. L. Simonia (Institute of Internal Affairs of the Russian Academy of Sciences) noted that the foreign policy activity of the Myanmar military leadership is still focused on China and India. At the same time, in order to preserve the independence of its foreign policy as much as possible, Naypyidaw (the new capital, fortress city and home of the military leadership) is seeking to expand economic and military-technical cooperation with Russia. With the political and economic support of these countries, Myanmar intends to ensure its national security and ease the political and economic pressure of the US and the EU. In particular, in January 2007, for the first time in 35 years, Moscow and Beijing jointly blocked the adoption by the UN Security Council of an American resolution condemning the Myanmar authorities for human rights violations. Further, the speaker focused on specific examples of economic and military-technical cooperation between Myanmar and Russia in 2006-2007.

S. I. Ioanesyan (IB RAS) reported on the main facts and events in the public life of the Lao PDR. In March 2006, the Eighth Congress of the Lao People's Republican Party, a leading political force in the country, was held. The main topics of the congress are the results of the social and economic development of the Lao PDR over the past 20 years, the results of the state's "innovative" policy of transforming the national economy in order to "build socialism in the country in accordance with its specific characteristics". The main indicative parameters of the new five - year plan for 2006-2010 were adopted. There was a rotation of party and state cadres-a new president and Secretary General of the National People's Party were elected (both positions were occupied by Tummali Sainason), and Boason Boonhavan was appointed Prime Minister. SI Ioanesyan acquainted the audience with the assessments of the development of Laos in 2006 made by international experts. It was in this year that Laos was declared a country with the status of "Opium free". At the same time, she stressed that the Lao People's Republic still has many difficult problems to solve, such as getting rid of poverty by 2020, which require huge efforts not only from the Lao people themselves, but also from the international community.

In her speech, G. F. Murasheva (Institute of Foreign Policy of the Russian Academy of Sciences) traced two main directions of Vietnam's foreign policy in 2006: further integration into the world economy and activation of bilateral relations mainly by the leading developed countries (USA, Japan, etc.). Both directions were crowned with great success. This is the accession of Vietnam to the WTO and the implementation of the

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Hanoi APEC-14 Meetings (November 2006). Vietnam has made every effort to use the APEC Forum in its national interests. Many lucrative contracts and agreements of intent were signed. MNCs have shown interest in Vietnam in terms of investment cooperation. Several top-level state visits to Vietnam were arranged. During Vladimir Putin's visit to the country, Gazprom and Vietnam's Petrovet Oil Corporation signed a cooperation agreement.

A. L. Sokolov (Institute of History of the Russian Academy of Sciences) noted that in the context of globalization, the context in which the Vietnamese national culture is formed and developed, and the means involved in the implementation of this process, are changing. State control over cultural products, both domestic and foreign, remains in force. Cultural exchange and dissemination of foreign, primarily mass, culture is actively growing. English is increasingly used as a lingua franca, the Internet and the " new literary environment "(magazines, literary works, forums, blogs). The current stage of Vietnamese literature is marked by a variety of trends: from formal experiments to the rise of mass literature (primarily popular). The decline in the position of film production at state-owned studios is taking place in parallel with the growth in the production of films at private film studios and co-produced films, including those with Vietnamese emigrants. Television continues to play a dominant role as the main source of information and spiritual nourishment. The commercialization of the music and visual arts industries is a sign of increasing consumer and entertainment trends in the field of culture. The scale of Vietnam's involvement in globalization is reflected in the rapid development of tourism (international and domestic), an important area of the national economy and culture.

A. Kravkov (MGIMO University) In the report "Vietnam's national policy on the Tainguyen Plateau at the beginning of the XXI century", the Russian Foreign Ministry analyzed the reaction of the Vietnamese leadership to the speeches of the small peoples of the Tainguyen Plateau in 2001 and 2004, which became one of the largest social explosions in the country during the period of the "renewal policy". Having considered the actions of the Vietnamese authorities to improve the socio-economic situation of national minorities, the speaker concluded that the comprehensive and large-scale activities of Hanoi have made it possible to significantly overcome this threat to the country's security and stability so far. A. Kravkov also touched upon such issues as the activities of human rights and separatist organizations located in Western countries, the observance of religious freedoms in US-Vietnam relations, Vietnam's efforts to ensure "openness" of its course are on a plateau.

A. L. Smirnova (MGIMO University) In the report "Southeast Asian Countries - leading investors in Vietnam", the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation commented on its own calculations, according to which the ASEAN countries became the largest group of foreign investors in Vietnam by 2006 - as of January 1, 2006, they accounted for more than 13% of the total number of projects approved by the Vietnamese government involving foreign direct investment and more than 20% of the total volume of FDI. In total, ASEAN countries invested more than $ 13.4 billion in 964 projects in Vietnam, and in terms of total FDI, they significantly outperformed other groups of foreign investors: offshore zones ($9.5 billion) and EU countries ($8.6 billion). Singapore has become the largest investor country, with more capital invested in Vietnam than US and Japanese FDI combined. All ASEAN member countries, with the exception of Myanmar, invest in Vietnam, but the volume of their investments is much more modest compared to the leader - Singapore. However, Malaysia, which ranks second in the group, invests more in Vietnam than Australia ($1.8 billion) and almost as much as Russia. The sectoral structure of ASEAN investment is very diverse, but the main share of this FDI is located in the manufacturing industry and in the service sector, especially in construction, tourism and hospitality. A. A. Smirnova believes that the above calculations clearly indicate that Vietnam has already become one of the most energetic participants in the process of real integration of the ASEAN countries and is actively forming unified investment space of the Association. This conclusion is confirmed by the fact that Vietnam itself is increasing the volume of foreign investments - as of January 1, 2006, they amounted to almost $ 622 million, while more than 2/3 of this volume was placed in the ASEAN countries (Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia, Indonesia).

P. E. Kochkin (ISAA at Moscow State University) reviewed the current state of trade relations between Vietnam and China. Vietnam is a country with a strong foreign trade dependence of the economy. With tse-

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In order to protect itself from changes in the global commodity market, it seeks to diversify its exports geographically. Currently, China has become the main trading partner of Vietnam and accounts for the lion's share of the foreign trade deficit. Vietnam's trade turnover with China in 2005 exceeded $ 8.7 billion, and in 2006, according to preliminary estimates, it amounted to $ 10.4 billion. Vietnam is dependent on China for trade. This is confirmed by the analysis of export and import flows between countries. In addition to the fact that China is consistently ranked first in terms of import volume, the commodity concentration of its imports is twice the average for Vietnam. One of the ways to reduce this dependence for Vietnam is to put its own refining facilities into operation, as refined products have become one of the main items of import from China. Describing the overall trade of Vietnam with China, the speaker noted that it is based on comparative advantages associated with low production costs in Vietnam, while the competitive advantages of Vietnamese goods are still insignificant.

In general, the conference, which has been held annually since 1998, allows for consistent and effective monitoring of the current development of Southeast Asia. Speeches and presentations presented at the conference contain an analysis of its most priority and relevant aspects - from the place of Southeast Asia in the modern world, changes in the geopolitical and geo-economic configuration of the region to a multi-faceted study of country problems. A special place is occupied by the issues of relations between the Russian Federation and ASEAN, the prospects for expanding mutual cooperation. Conclusions and generalizations made at the conference make a certain contribution to the study of Southeast Asia and may be of particular interest to practical organizations related to the development of relations between the Russian Federation and Southeast Asian countries.


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Yu. O. LEVTONOVA, G. S. SHABALINA, SOUTH-EAST ASIA IN 2006-CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ISSUES // Stockholm: Swedish Digital Library (LIBRARY.SE). Updated: 05.07.2024. URL: https://library.se/m/articles/view/SOUTH-EAST-ASIA-IN-2006-CURRENT-DEVELOPMENT-ISSUES (date of access: 22.07.2024).

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Vera Lind
Uppsala, Sweden
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05.07.2024 (17 days ago)
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