V. A. MELYANTSEV. DEVELOPED AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN AN ERA OF CHANGE. (Comparative assessment of the efficiency of growth in the 1980s-2000s). Moscow: Publishing House "Klyuch-S", 2009. 216 p.
The question for orientalists is probably more acute than for other social scientists: should they delve into the details of the life of Eastern countries in their research or, using the rich variety of models and factors of development that exist in the East, should they strive for generalizations resulting from an analysis of the realities of specific countries? The book under review is the second answer to this question. Moreover, the book essentially presents an analysis of world economic development in the period that is called the era of globalization.
The modern world economy is characterized by a great variety and inconsistency of processes that confirm a variety of theories and views. The strong point of V. A. Melyantsev's book is the lack of bias. The author objectively reflects the complexity of the modern world economy, without trying to single out something that can be called the main thing, and on this build a simplified picture of the world. Its use of regression analysis as a tool for assessing the strength of links between economic indicators is a test for the significance of certain processes, and not all the hypotheses initially formulated, for example, about the relationship between population dynamics and per capita GDP in developing countries (p. 188, page 2), are confirmed.
The advantage of the book is the abundance of well-selected statistical materials (almost no position of the author "hangs" as a certain hypothesis, not confirmed by well-processed tables and graphs) and footnotes, conveniently located for the reader on a page by page basis. It seems that this is largely due to the fact that the author used regression analysis in his work, which, in addition to quantitative estimates of relationships, provides filtering of information, highlighting the most significant from it.
For developed countries, the most important component of economic renewal in recent decades has been the formation of the so-called new economy, which, in the words of V. A. Melyantsev, is "knowledge-intensive" (p. 8). The formation of an economy based on innovations is really a new phenomenon, and V. A. Melyantsev is one of the pioneers in our country in the field of its development. analysis. On pages 9-11, the reader will find a brief methodology for analyzing the "human capital", innovation and information sphere, which define the face of the "new economy". The section "Ambivalent impulses of the new economy" provides a full-fledged, evidence-based description of the process and results of the formation of the "new economy" in developed countries.
At the same time, the book contains a lot of data about old problems that are still on the agenda in the world. This is the backwardness and poverty of tens and hundreds of millions of people in developing countries. The relevant specific data are given on pages 158 - 159.
Although the author is a recognized expert on the economy of developing countries, the sections dealing with developed countries are written with no less depth of analysis. For example, p. 41 provides an analysis of the US healthcare system and its low efficiency. The book was written long before health care reform became the main point of US President B. Trump's domestic policy. The Obamas.
Without particularly highlighting the identified trend, V. A. Melyantsev defines the development of" human capital " as an urgent development requirement in all countries of the modern world (pp. 122-137). While in developing countries this requirement is largely related to the need to combat high mortality and morbidity, in developed countries and many developing countries, the level of education of the population and scientific progress come to the fore as factors of economic growth. It seems that the author has made an important generalization that determines many other processes in the world economy.
In addition to the" new economy", the book also focuses on traditional industries that significantly affect the economic situation of countries and regions. Pages 85-89 provide a detailed analysis of the situation in agriculture and its mechanization in developing countries.
The advantage of the book is also a clear conclusion that summarizes the analysis done by V. A. Melyantsev and highlights the main features in the motley picture of the state of the modern world economy. His conclusion is somewhat paradoxical: in conclusion, the first point is that it is not clear how to measure the effectiveness of economic growth in the modern world. Indeed, it is difficult to disagree with the author that most of the indicators were built for the industrial era, for developed countries, and to a large extent for national economies, for which involvement in the global division of labor was often a secondary factor. Globalization and the post-industrial economy require new approaches. It is difficult to measure efficiency at different stages of economic development with the same indicators. For example, an increase in the energy intensity of GDP during industrialization is a positive fact, since a modern industrial society cannot exist without a modern energy economy, but in the post-industrial stage, increasing energy efficiency becomes a more important factor.
The modern world economy is undergoing a certain transition, the outcome of which is not entirely clear. On the one hand, a number of countries, especially in East and South-East Asia and Latin America, are making excellent progress on the path of catch-up development. In these regions, industrialization and demographic transition to the current type of population reproduction are successfully carried out; most people's lives are becoming richer and more comfortable. On the other hand, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa remain backward regions, with a high proportion of the population living in poverty, with no prospects of making their way into modern society.
Scientific and technological progress creates new opportunities, new products and entire industries appear, but it turns out that the creation of new ones, for example in the field of information technology, does not solve many traditional problems of the economy. Cell phones and the Internet do not increase food production or create new sources of energy. The question arises: does the emergence of new technologies enhance the sustainability of humanity's existence in conditions of depletion of natural resources? Finally, such a manifestation of globalization as the transfer of production from developed countries to developing countries can be considered an economic success, since costs are falling, but the deindustrialization of developed countries can affect their development prospects.
The book was published at the beginning of the global economic crisis, and it reflects the processes that have already crystallized by this period. As the crisis fades, many things change, all attention is drawn to it, but the longer-term processes have not ceased to be relevant.
V. A. Melyantsev quickly reacted to the signs of the global economic crisis, which, of course, has become a central event in the economic life of the whole world recently. He notes that "the economic and social cost of the crisis, which has affected almost all countries of the world, is very impressive" (p. 51). It should be noted that this was written when the crisis was still raging and many people still thought that the degree of coverage of the world's countries would be less. V. A. Melyantsev believes that global regulation is necessary as a strategy to combat the crisis: "To stop the deglobalization of the world (and this is
today it is manifested in a decrease in financial wealth, increased volatility in the world, capital flight from developing countries, reduced loans and liquidity), the world economy, as it is becoming increasingly clear, urgently needs global regulation " (p. 55).
In recent years, the global economy has been developing very dynamically, and before the crisis, it seemed that ways and mechanisms had been found to solve most of the problems. V. A. Melyantsev, touching on the topic of global regulation, willingly or unwittingly raises a number of problems. The globalization of the economy and the parallel liberalization of regulation in this area of activity have caused consequences that will affect any strategy for overcoming the current crisis. For developed countries, a number of challenges are associated with the achievements of their social and economic development.
First, the full promotion of market mechanisms in the economies of developed countries, while at the same time strengthening social protection of the population, has led to the fact that the mobilizing role of the crisis in terms of increasing the activity of ordinary members of society in search of new jobs when they leave or start a new business has weakened. The level of social protection in the United States is lower than in Europe, but everywhere it is incomparably higher than it was a few decades ago, for example, during the Great Depression of the 1930s. This situation greatly limits the ability of the economy to heal itself from the crisis by mobilizing the entrepreneurial potential of the broad masses of people. At the same time, with a declining tax base, the State must bear the burden of social obligations. The acute debt crisis in Greece, which has put the entire EU system in a difficult position , is an example of this kind of problem.
Secondly, the technological level of production has become so complex that very significant financial resources are needed to adapt old equipment for the production of new products. It also requires a very high level of knowledge to develop a truly new product to enter the market. As a result, many of the creative possibilities of mass democratic market capitalism are cut off, when the competition of many small producers in the market creates economic growth. These opportunities are limited to small businesses in trade and services, which can mitigate the problems of unemployment, but will not bring the economy to a new technological level.
Globalization and global competition have led to the fact that the improvement of production and the development of global marketing systems have created many oligopolies and even monopolies in certain areas of production. For a large number of medium-and high-tech products, there are still a few manufacturers in the world that supply all countries with their products. This is observed in the oil, automotive, electrical, electronic, pharmaceutical industries, which produce mass products. The same situation has developed in the production of investment goods, for example, the aviation industry, the production of metallurgical equipment, machine tool construction and many other industries. Highly specialized monopolists may not be ready for major changes in their operations. They can expect to "sit out" the crisis, and in the conditions of recovery, demand for their products will grow again. This circumstance also limits the possibility of restoring economic development through market mechanisms.
Third, during the years of liberalization, the ruling elite of developed countries has lost the skills to manage the mechanisms and tools of structural policy, i.e., the development of economic sectors and the development of industrial policy. Currently, the most developed mechanisms for managing the financial sector, the organization of cash flows in the state, but these mechanisms were significantly weakened by the financial crisis. As a result, there is a situation where society, business and the state in developed countries are facing a large-scale crisis, and many mechanisms for adapting and solving such problems do not actually work or are absent.
Developing countries and countries with economies in transition also have a number of constraints that will have an impact on economic policy:
1. Most developing countries are small in terms of population and economy, so that in the context of globalization and heavy dependence on imports of everything that makes up the elements of modern life (household appliances, automobiles, food, industrial equipment), they can only adapt to the conditions that will form developed and large developing countries and countries with economies in transition. transition economy. For the majority of developing countries, the global crisis will probably not be an impetus for development. For the role of lo-
Only a few countries in this group can apply for the comotives, so the selection of twenty countries that have the most significant weight in the world economy, including such developing and transition countries as Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, South Africa, and the Republic of Korea, is quite reasonable.
2. There are various options for establishing development mechanisms, and major developing countries must make important decisions in this area that can affect their internal political stability. The fact is that the development strategy can be aimed at that part of society that is already involved in modern production, participates in the international division of labor, but suffered during the global crisis with a reduction in exports to developed countries. Economic policy will consist of addressing the problems of employment and income of this part of society. Thus, the already modernized part of society can become a priority for development. At the same time, almost all countries of the developing world and countries with economies in transition, including China, have significant masses of the population, whose life is still very far from modern standards. This part of the population needs to reorient investments towards taking their interests into account, but the technological level of production and output of goods and services in this case will be lower than when focusing on the modernized part of society. Unlike developed countries, developing countries and countries with economies in transition have huge unmet demand, but its very size is also a problem, since the question arises about the order of its saturation.
3. Governments of countries such as China, India, and Brazil will have to decide whether to develop based on their own problems, opportunities, and resources, or integrate into the processes of globalization, but as active players shaping global economic policy on a par with developed countries.
Thus, it is not clear what global regulation should be and who needs it, in what form, who will implement it, and in whose interests. Naturally, these are questions that many economists are trying to answer, and opinions here vary greatly.
The subjects in the book are diverse, but the author is professional in all the topics that he considers, whether they relate to developed countries or developing ones, macroeconomics or industry problems, describing specific details of economic processes in a particular industry or country, or building generalized indicators and models of economic processes.
Although V. A. Melyantsev's book is very topical, it will be of interest to the reader for a long time to come both as a qualified summary of the world economic development before the global economic crisis, and as an example of a holistic, professional, objective analysis of the processes taking place in the world economy.
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